The Tragedy of the Commons

The highly suspect economics essay called ‘The Tragedy of the Commons’ is well known in Wild Law for being heavily leaned by Professors Warren and Lea in attempts to discredit its practicability at the first Wild Law Conference (papers available elsewhere in the forum).

Here is a new take on the subject from the Mountain Equipment Coop (MEC) which everyone should read.

It points the finger rather differently – there is even a telling graphic to that effect.


http://blog.mec.ca/2007/09/index.html


To those unfamiliar, MEC started as a co-operative amongst a small group of Canadian students who wanted to buy their rucksacs economically.

Out of that one initiative has grown an organisation with over two and a half million members, which must make it one of the largest co-ops anywhere in the world as well as one of the largest retailers of outdoor equipment.

A highly green, ethical and democratic organisation, MEC is keenly engaged in promoting and protecting the wilderness – Canada being one of the relatively small number of countries with significant amounts to still to protect. Its purpose is not to make money or sell gear:

‘Our mission is to help people access self-propelled wilderness-oriented recreation by providing equipment, services, and expertise.’

A freshing difference. And a heartening example of how small, local acts can sometimes produce enormous consequences when their time is right.



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Website of the Day: Transition Towns

Transition town is a term that keeps popping up when you start checking out alternatives. As it is something of an innovation, and perhaps rather mysterious one at that, today’s offering is the result of an attempt to find out what it is all about, for those not already familiar.

Transition Towns turns out to be a community based, bottom-up movement. Each community aims to develop an ‘Energy Descent Action Plan’ to prepare for and respond to the twin crises foreseen approaching – energy scarcity and climate change.

Much of the emphasis is on the concept of ‘Peak Oil’ – that we have lived through a period that started around 1960 in which energy supplies were more or less inexhaustible and at ever lower prices – which is now coming to an end.

The whole movement is conceptualised in Permaculture terms, so it is no surprise that both the solutions typically envisaged and the processes for arriving at them are conceived along those lines. Not that there is anything inherently wrong in that, as Permaculture is probably the most coherent response we have to the multiple challenges we now face.

These include a return to the local economy, moves towards sustainability and self-sufficiency, ecological building, low energy use, local food production and so forth.

Another key concept is ‘the great deskilling’. This refers to the fact that through socialisation and education society has produced a population of people very highly educated and incredibly skilled in all manner of extremely specialised things, all of which have only one thing in common – that they are all unfortunately absolutely useless from the point of view of survival – whilst simultaneously loosing almost completely in only a few generations their birthright of traditional skills, some of which have been passed down largely unchanged since the Stone Age or earlier, and that are indispensable to living harmoniously with the planet. How to grow and nuture, make and repair things, knowledge of the uses of the things of nature, how to live with the weather, the seasons, one’s own body. Things like that.

The ability to prepare food is the latest one phasing out, in favour of convenience foods and eating out, because people now consider themselves to be ‘too busy’ for such unworthwhile activities as cooking.

The net result is a population absolutely incapable of meeting any of its survival needs in any way whatsoever other than to buy them, and which is therefore totally dependent upon the system and condemned to a consumer lifestyle – in the true sense of the word – as a result. It therefore has no alternative than to work for money in whatever way the system requires.

It is a fundamental part of the problem, and has simply left people climbing over each other to get the most comfortable spots available within that model. For better or worse, from that point of view law has to be amongst the most desirable.


Transition Town status appears to be entirely independent of conventional local government, though there is great emphasis on the need to get it on side to get individual aspects of the plans put into practice, and hopefully to get the Energy Descent Action Plan endorsed and perhaps one day fully adopted. Only when there are sufficient local communities up and running in an area will the process be expanded on their backs to the regional level or higher.

It seems the movement started in Totnes, Devon, UK around summer 2006 and has gone on rapidly from there.

Within the UK, the site lists 22 places that have officially recognised as Transition Towns, and another 200 where initial processes are underway.

Elsewhere it identifies Transition Towns in France, Italy, Spain, Sweden, Israel, Oz, New Zealand, Canada and the USA.

Oakland, California, USA is listed as the front runner to be the first Transition City.


The main site is a wiki still under development. It also links to the websites of the Transition Towns individually. The most useful page to start at is

http://transitiontowns.org/TransitionNetwork/TransitionNetwork

where the links top right lead to some interesting stuff.


There is a telling illustration of how money haemorrhages from the local economy if you don’t shop locally, quantified at

http://transitiontowns.org/TransitionNetwork/LeakyEconomy


Finally an article about the movement from the Guardian of 19 April 2007 is at

http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2007/apr/19/energy.ethicalliving



END

Website of the Day: The World Land Trust

The feelgood factor from being an investor in Triodos Bank is marvellous, knowing that your money is helping only really inspiring organisations with a positive ecological and social benefit, and not arms dealers, the manufacturers of nuclear power stations and other unconscionable things.

But tops in this respect has to be The World Land Trust. It’s a charity that doesn’t just talk about things, it gets right on and does them.

Its purpose is to buy up habitats of major ecological importance that are under severe threat just as fast as it can. As there are a lot of these, it has a lot to do.

Since 1989, the WLT has helped protect over 350,000 acres (142 hectares) of tropical forest, coral reefs, arid coastal steppe, and ancient beech woodland.

Just £25 buys half an acre of rainforest that typically holds more than 220 species of tree. Compare that with the ‘singularly impoverished’ native tree population of the entire British Isles which consists of just 36 species. You can pump up the number to 65 by adding 8 ‘larger shrubs which occasionally reach tree size’ and 21 naturalised species if you are embarrassed, but its perilously close to cheating. Source:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trees_of_Britain_and_Ireland


All due to the speed with which the North Sea filled up after the last Ice Age, apparently (Collins Tree Guide, 2004, p7).

Then you really feel you have done something extraordinarily worthwhile with your money. And that is before you take account of all the things that live in them!

If that doesn’t appeal, instead invest in a piece of a corridor for endangered Indian elephants to put their trunks in. Seems they are getting into big trouble with – you guessed it – humans, for doing no more than tramping the ancient migratory trails they have always followed, so there is a need to buy them up fast before the inevitable outcome plays out.

And the nice thing about elephants is that, unlike those two-legged animals, they are happy to share with all the other species, so everyone gains - with the exception of a few misguided people.

Patrons this time around are none other than David Attenborough, so you can have absolute confidence in science and the utility, and, for some reason, David Gower. Bill Oddie is also on board, and we even have a lawyer as one of the trustees. He is Simon Lyster, qualified in both the UK and USA, who is Chief Executive of LEAD International, an international network of folk whose shared mission is to inspire leadership for a sustainable world. He’s a former Director General of the Wildlife Trusts and worked for 10 years with WWF.



As the Wild Law workshop is currently in full flight, the proposition is that all participants should consider buying half an acre this weekend to do something positive, concrete and instantaneous that really makes a difference, and to help to offset the impacts that are an inevitable consequence of gathering together, no matter how worthy the cause.

Most of all for the sheer elation. To know that today you saved a big chunk of rainforest and all the things that live in it, for little more than the price of a round of drinks, has to be one of the best things you can do with money anywhere. The kids will love you for it, too.

http://www.worldlandtrust.org



END

Website of the day: Earth Jurisprudence Website

First up today has to be the brand new Earth Jurisprudence site launched earlier this week by the Gaia Foundation.

Visually stunning and nicely targeted, it already assembles a wealth of essential information in one place for the first time, and will no doubt be doing lots more exciting things in due course.

This excellent step forward must be obligatory viewing for all interested in Wild Law, so little more need be said.

http://www.earthjurisprudence.org/index.html

The site is still under construction, so the opportunity remains to make positive input – to Guy at the Gaia Foundation on

guy@gaianet.org


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Arctic Sea Ice Melts to its Lowest Ever

POSTED 22 september 2007

ARCTIC SEA ICE MELTS TO ITS LOWEST LEVEL EVER

This article appears in today’s Independent. It reports a 22% shrinkage in minimum area over two summers, and predicts an ice free Arctic by 2030 or sooner and the extinction of the polar bear by mid century.

It reports the latest findings of US National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC), which monitors the state of the Arctic.


Key points:

‘The sea ice of the Arctic shrank to its lowest-ever level this week, shattering the previous record, set two years ago, by an enormous amount…’

‘In what will be widely seen as one of the most alarming signs yet of accelerating global warming, the summer melt-back exceeded the September 2005 low point by 22 per cent – an area of 1.2 million square kilometres – more than 385,000 square miles. This represents an area five times the size of the UK.’

"It's the biggest drop from a previous record that we've ever had and it's really quite astounding…this is really accelerating the trend."

‘By Sunday last week, it had shrunk to 1.6 million sq miles. This compares with the 2005 low point of 2.07 million sq miles.’

‘The contrast is even greater with the long-term average over the past 20 years or so. Between 1979 (when regular satellite monitoring had just started) and 2000, the long-term average minimum was 2.6 million sq miles.’

‘…now scientists are increasingly thinking the models have seriously underestimated the rate, and [the arctic becoming ice free] may happen much earlier.’

A senior NSIDC researcher said it might take only 25 years or less.

"If we were talking even two or three years ago, I'd have said the transition to an ice-free Arctic summer might be between 2070 and 2100…But we're starting to see that that is rather optimistic, and an educated guess right now would be 2030. It's something that could be within our lifetime."

He added:

"We're on strong spiral of decline; some would say a death spiral. I wouldn't go that far but we're certainly on a fast track…”

‘What the melting of the Arctic ice will do is spell doom for much of the wildlife of the region, led by polar bears, which need the ice to hunt seals. Polar bears were officially notified as threatened species last year by being included in the Red List of the World Conservation Union. Some conservationists think they could be gone by mid-century.’

Comment:

The thing to note here is the trend. The Arctic fell in enduring size by 22% from of 2.07 million sq miles in 2005 to 1.6 million sq miles over just two summers. Extrapolating that very crudely on a straight line basis would actually imply an ice-free Arctic in only 8 years time – in 2013 – or earlier. But it is on an accelerating trend, suggesting even earlier still.

Comparing the current figure of 1.6 million sq miles with the long-term average between 1979 and 2000 of 2.6 million sq miles, a drop of 38%, is more conjectural. However this figure is interpreted it can only be viewed as alarming.

It is important not to overlook that the effects on climate will already be happening, and will do so with increasing force as the melt continues.

It is not the case that everything is fine until the last iceberg melts in 2013, 2030 or whenever. Also during the last few years of its existence, the Arctic will be so small that its moderating effects on weather and its influence on global circulation patterns in the oceans will have already largely been lost.



Please bear in mind that even if we were to react today with absolute decisiveness there is absolutely nothing we can do to halt global warming for a decade or more, possibly much longer. Like karma, the consequences have already been decided by our past actions and are absolutely inescapable.

The only sane response has to be a most urgent and fundamental re-evaluation of our lives, our values and our actions on an individual level, accompanied by an equally rigorous examination and realignment universally.

Please, do not prevaricate.


http://environment.independent.co.uk/climate_change/article2987778.ece


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Website of the day: Indigenous People's Cultural Support Trust

Emily, Sue and Patrick, three of the trustees from the IPCST came along to Andy Kimbrell’s outstanding presentation at the Gaia Foundation on Wednesday 19 September.

It is a small and apparently very efficient charity which works for the Indian tribal people in Brazil in the catchments of the Xingu and Araguaia rivers in the States of Mato Grosso and Pará.


They are looking to Wild Law – and indeed any law – to help protect the integrity of the reserves and to protect the tribal peoples whose way of life depend on it.

Both are under severe threat to the extent of becoming unviable as a result of encroachment, logging, serious contamination of the catchment upstream, and conflicts with non-indigenous settlers.

The water problems are caused by a massive sediment load due to deforestation, to the extent it is no longer possible to see fish – the main food – to spear them.

In addition there is a health problem with sewerage carried in from settlements outside the reserve.

Patron of the charity is Professor Sir Ghillean Prance, Science Director of the Eden Project in Cornwall, and a former Director of the Royal Botanic Gardens at Kew.



Start here to get an overview, including bios on the interesting lives of Emily, Sue and Patrick, then browse from there for details of the projects, satellite photos showing the problem etc:

http://www.ipcst.org/about.htm#members


There is also a short document on the impact of climate change which is worth visiting for a graphic satellite image showing the desolation outside the reserve. It reminds us:

‘Deforestation contributes 75% of Brazil’s total greenhouse gas emissions; despite Brazilian people having a relatively small individual carbon footprint, Brazil is the world’s fourth largest climate polluter.’

at:

http://www.ipcst.org/images/HoB_ClimateChange.pdf


IPCST’s work is featured extensively on the BBC’s Portuguese website which is highly recommended even for non-speakers for the stunning photos (em imagen). Find them at

http://www.bbc.co.uk/portuguese/forum/story/2007/08/070808_projetoxingu17.shtml



Any legal expertise that might help with the predicament of these endangered peoples, a fast disappearing part of our global heritage and of the Earth community, would be greatly appreciated.


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'Too Late to Avoid Global Warming' Say Scientists

This article was published in the Independent yesterday.

It reports on the latest study issued by the IPCC on 19 September.



Key points in the IPCC report are:

‘A rise of two degrees centigrade in global temperatures…is now "very unlikely" to be avoided.’

‘Very unlikely’ means a ‘1% to 10% chance of limiting the global temperature rise to two degrees centigrade or less’.

A two degree rise is considered to be

‘the threshold for catastrophic climate change which will expose millions to drought, hunger and flooding…’

It

‘put the inevitability of drastic global warming in the starkest terms yet, stating that major impacts…are unavoidable and the focus must be on adapting life to survive the most devastating changes.’

"If warming is not kept below two degrees centigrade, which will require the strongest mitigation efforts, and currently looks very unlikely to be achieved, the [sic] substantial global impacts will occur, such as species extinctions, and millions of people at risk from drought, hunger, flooding."

The article states:

‘For more than a decade, EU countries led by Britain have set a rise of two degrees centigrade or less in global temperatures above pre-industrial levels as the benchmark after which the effects of climate become devastating, with crop failures, water shortages, sea-level rises, species extinctions and increased disease.’

Two years ago, an authoritative study predicted there could be as little as 10 years before this "tipping point" for global warming was reached, adding a rise of 0.8 degrees had already been reached with further rises already locked in because of the time lag in the way carbon dioxide – the principal greenhouse gas – is absorbed into the atmosphere.


NB that means only 8 years from now.



The IPCC report states

‘the effects of this rise are being felt sooner than anticipated with the poorest countries and the poorest people set to suffer the worst of shifts in rainfall patterns, temperature rises and the viability of agriculture across much of the developing world.’

The Met Office scientist who co-chaired the committee said:

"Ten years ago we were talking about these impacts affecting our children and our grandchildren. Now it is happening to us."

‘…he believed it would now be "very difficult" to achieve the target…’

and

" You cannot mitigate your way out of this problem... The choice is between a damaged world or a future with a severely damaged world."

Rajendra Pachauri, the chairman of the IPCC, said that 2015 was the last year in which the world could afford a net rise in greenhouse gas emissions, after which "very sharp reductions" are required.



The article contains many moving examples of the devastation this would mean in practice, many of which are drawn directly from the IPCC report. Perhaps the most stark example is:

‘Asia: Up to a billion people will suffer water shortages as supplies dwindle with the melting of Himalayan glaciers.’

Others relevant to this topic are:

‘Polar regions: The seasonal thaw of permafrost will increase by 15 per cent and the overall extent of the permafrost will shrink by about 20 per cent. Indigenous communities such as the Inuit face loss of traditional lifestyle.’

And no doubt the polar bears, too.

'Small islands: Low-lying islands are particularly vulnerable to rising sea levels with the Maldives already suffering land loss.’

The IPCC report would simply seem to reconfirm the argument set out in the topic ‘Is there time for Wild Law?’

In terms of averting catastrophe the answer is clearly no. But that merely reinforces the urgency for its universal introduction at the earliest possible opportunity. We simply cannot go on like this a moment longer.

The changes inherent in a Wild Law system of environmental and economic regulation are required with the utmost urgency to mitigate the effects of what we have already irreversibly done.

And scandalously are continuing to do with absolute irresponsibility.

It also hammers home the futility of waiting for governments – or anyone else for that matter – to act.

There is now an absolute moral imperative on each and every one of us to do all we can to put our lives in order without prevarication or excuses, to minimise our ecological footprint to the absolute in recognition that many are yet to start doing so, and to try to just as hard as we can to convince everyone we know to do the same.

It may sound drastic. But on the very best science the outcome now seems inevitable, and it would be foolish and irresponsible – as well as ultimately self-destructive – to do otherwise.


http://environment.independent.co.uk/climate_change/article2976669.ece



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Wild Law Website

Only one question.



Where is it?



A matter of priority for this weekend, surely.



If fleshing out is needed please do say.


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Website of the day: The Centre for Alternative Technology

The origins of CAT lie in the attempts of a visionary millionaire and a load of hippies to establish a entirely self-sufficient community in the arguably less than ideal setting of a disused slate quarry on the south edge of Snowdonia in 1975.

It quickly became apparent that this implied going back more or less to the stone age and, as this was not considered palatable, the direction was shifted into what was then called Intermediate Technology. It has been of Europe’s leading demonstration centre in sustainability every since.

For most of that time its was dismissed by decision-makers – as just a load of old hippies – with the one exception of overseas development, where the wisdom, applicability and economic efficiency of its solutions won respectability with government agencies.

Undeterred, CAT worked away steadily at developing workable solutions and educating the public in both the issues involved and their resolution.

Extraordinarily it become one of the top tourist destinations in North Wales, and established itself as the leading consultancy for small scale off-the-grid power installations – solar wind and hydro - eco-building, energy conservation in buildings and several other disciplines.

Almost overnight the situation flipped when governments woke up abruptly to the environmental issues CAT had been advertising for 20 years or more. It suddenly found itself at the centre of mainstream thinking, with numerous government departments scrambling over themselves to hurriedly reformulate policy in areas hitherto unknown to them, particularly with respect to wind energy which almost no-one else in the country knew anything about at that time, and energy conservation in buildings.



CAT is a more or less obligatory visit for anyone seriously interested in positive, practical solutions to our environmental crisis.

It has an excellent shop for sustainability items and an outstanding range of books on every aspect of sustainability, including many of its own publications. There is also a very good organic vegetarian restaurant.

CAT also runs a wide range of short and long residential courses on anything from blacksmithing to organic gardening, installing wind turbines – you can even make one out of recycled materials – to building your own eco-home. Even how to convert your car to run on chip fat – or biodiesel. These are perhaps the best way to really understand the breadth of vision of the place.

It also offers a number of MA/MSc courses related to architecture, energy, and environmental management.

Do try to visit if you have not already.


http://www.cat.org.uk/index.tmpl?refer=index&init=1




END

Ego (Wild Law in Seven Words part III)

Your ego seized control of you mind. Long ago.

Now it keeps your heart prisoner in a dungeon it has constructed out of fear and doubts it insinuates whenever you hear your heart calling.

The thousand and one ‘common-sense’ reasons that paralyse you after you begin to soar elated at the heart’s inspiration. It is only common because it is so ubiquitous.



Money. Insecurity. Status. Reactions of others you live in fear of. Nightmare scenarios of a future it is not yours to know in advance. And money again.



So you close your ears to the voice of your heart within, and turn back to what you have always known. To what is poisoning the planet.

Because it is safe. Because it is respectable. Because it involves no risk.

Because that is what you have been told you should do all your lives.

Because it is demanded of you from all sides, for it is what the system depends on.



But your soul weeps quietly, and you cannot but hear its sadness. So you attempt to blank it out in hyperactivity, in haste and busyness, distracting yourself unremittingly so you do not have time to listen.

Or seek escape in booze and drugs, or hopelessly desperate sex that you cling to as a drowning person cleaves to the lifesaver. Even as you drown them too in your desperation.

Because it is the last contact with nature that remains in your urban, industrial lives, the last piece of your authenticity left for your natural being, for what you really are, to manifest through.

That is why it is so radical and so potent, and so subversive.

And why it has become so distorted.

It is nature’s strongest force, and its most alchemic. Even alone it is only the best of you that can deal with it well.


But you add to its force all that lies crying within at its imprisonment trying to escape through the last chink that is left.

It blasts out as a torrent after a cataclysm, and its pent-up force is far more than you are capable of handling. Too often it carries everything in its wake.

Too constrained to express your true nature, or even your distorted nature, it seeps out sideways in a prurient interest in the sex lives of others. The rich and the famous and the egoists on Big Brother, even the people you know in your daily lives.

Nothing fascinates you more, because your needs and your creativity lie repressed within you.


.

Hearts and Minds (Wild Law in Seven Words part II)

They came back to give us some advice. They can see we have wandered off so far, and may have got so lost that we have forgotten how to find our way back.

They don’t mind how long we take for the journey. They just want us to relax and enjoy the experience of returning, and the wonders we will rediscover along the way.

Their concern is that we might be so lost we go on goofing up and making an even bigger mess. Of everything.

So here is what they say.

Follow your heart. That is all you need to do.

It will show you the way.

And it will do so perfectly. Every step of the path you must travel.

In ways that are too wondrous to imagine, which your head would not believe possible.




Do not let your head overrule it.

That is how you became arrogant and strode purposely out of Eden, adamant that you could do better.

Now just look what you have done.



Decisions are for your heart. Then your head can attend to logistics.

That is its purpose and that is what it excels at.

That is the natural order of all things.



For it is the divine which speaks to you thus.

And it is only by returning to harmony with the higher order

that you can find the peace and happiness that evades you.

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BBC Drops Planet Relief

'Mark Lynas dismissed the argument that Planet Relief was dropped for purely editorial reasons as "PR guff". "This is all to do with the fact that climate change is such a political issue and it's too hot for the BBC to handle," he said. "It's intellectual bankruptcy. The entire scientific community is telling the world that it's the biggest threat to human civilisation. What more evidence do you need?"'

http://environment.independent.co.uk/climate_change/article2934318.ece

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Melting icecap shockwaves are triggering earthquakes

An article was published in the Independent on 08 September entitled

‘Shockwaves from melting icecaps are triggering earthquakes, say scientists’

This relates the chilling news that the melting of Greenland's ice sheet has accelerated so dramatically that it is triggering earthquakes for the first time which register up to 3 on the Richter scale.

Key points to note are:

1 These glacial ice quakes were unknown in that region 3 years ago.

2 The paper considers them to be ‘among the latest ominous signs that an unprecedented step change is under way’.

3 That the acceleration in melting is so great it is outstripping the ability of scientists to predict it, while proving current predictions hopelessly optimistic in a matter of months – we are already at 2040 on a model produced 5 years ago, and will be at 2050 next year; an IPCC report issued this February is already considered out of date.

4 Glaciers are also starting to move rapidly – at up to 2 metres an hour – as a result of the lubrication caused by melt water, causing them to discharge into the sea at an accelerating rate.

5 Similar effects are being felt in Alaska where tectonic activity is being triggered by the relief of pressure due to the reduced amount of ice resting on the plates.

6 The predicted sea level rises in IPCC 4 (the latest) of 50 to 60 cm are now extremely dubious, and the consensus according to the article is now around two metres. The difference is critical.

7 In the north of Sweden, mean temperatures have risen above zero for the first time on record – ie it is in net meltdown for the first time since the last ice age or longer.


All that has been said in previous posts has dealt solely with the meltdown of the North Polar region. In other words it was made on the basis of an unrealistic and very optimistic assumption because it ignored the melting of the Greenland Icecap and Antarctica.

The reason for that assumption was that there seems now to be irrefutable evidence for the former; whilst the latter are clearly melting, the implications are more conjectural.

In the case of Greenland and the Antarctic, there have been extremely worrying signs from both for a considerable time. However because of their very different character, the unprecedented nature of the events unfolding, the lack of clarity as to what is happening to them and their responses as a system, their situation remains open to interpretation and the scientific position has yet to form a firm consensus.

In other words we don’t really know what is going on or what it is going to lead to.

As most will be aware, both regions are true continents lying beneath several kilometres of ice, while the North Polar region is nothing but a layer of ice floating in the sea. In comparison it is extremely thin – the submarines which surface through the ice can only do so where it is less than three and a half metres thick.


A critical issue is sea level rise. The melting of the North Pole makes no difference at all to sea level, because it is already floating in the water. That is not the case for the ice-bound continents. As the article says:

‘Greenland's ice cap is immense, the second largest in the world, and its break-up would be catastrophic. The packed ice is up to two miles thick and its total collapse into the ocean would raise worldwide sea levels by seven metres.’

In addition, we must assume that corresponding effects are happening to Antarctica during the Southern Hemisphere summer.

‘Estimates of the likely rise in sea levels this century vary, and the IPCC published a conservative range of between 20cm-60cm. But those estimates are now heavily disputed, with many scientists insisting that new data collected since the IPCC report suggested a rise closer to two metres.’

This will spell the end for many island states, for instance Vanuatu in the Pacific where the highest point is 4 metres above sea level. The knock-on effects would be dramatic, and the effects on climate of an increased proportion of sea on the earth’s surface unpredictable.


These finding illustrate most clearly the absolute frailty of the predictions we are relying on to determine our response to climate change. In a very short space of time the best science has been shown to have produced predictions that are completely unrealistic and hopelessly optimistic.

The lesson is clear. In such a situation the only sane response is to follow the precautionary principle to the letter.

Tragically we continue to do exactly the opposite.


The article should be read in full if at all possible. But for those lacking the time, a few more highlights are quoted below the URL.

http://environment.independent.co.uk/climate_change/article2941866.ece

‘The speed of the arctic ice melt has accelerated to such an extent that a UN report issued in February is now thought to be out of date by its own authors who describe the acceleration [in melting] as "massive".’

A key member of the IPCC said

"It's moving toward the sea at a rate of two metres an hour. It's exuding like toothpaste, moving towards us at 15 kilometres per year."

‘As the reality of the unprecedented thaw becomes apparent, the consequences are outstripping the capacity of scientific models to predict it.’

‘Predictions made by the Arctic Council, a working group of regional scientists, have been hopelessly overrun by the extent of the thaw. "Five years ago we made models predicting how much ice would melt and when," said Mr Vallio. "Five years later we are already at the levels predicted for 2040, in a year's time we'll be at 2050."’

‘This dramatic warming is being felt across the Arctic region. In Alaska, earthquakes are rocking the seabed as tectonic plates – subdued for centuries by the weight of the glaciers on top of them – are now moving against each other again.’

‘In the north of Sweden, mean temperatures have risen above zero for the first time on record.’

.

Website of the day: Crystal Waters Permaculture Village

The impression often created is that Earth Jurisprudence is a recent thing, and that Wild Law dates from 2002 when Cormac Cullinan’s ground-breaking book of that title was published.

Whilst that may possibly be true of the consciousness of the legal profession as a community, I suspect that view is a partial one as a result of the rather artificial world that lawyers inhabit, which Cormac Cullinan was forthright and candid enough to acknowledge when he spoke at ‘Earth is Community’ on Saturday 15 September.

http://www.earth-is-community.org.uk/


Meanwhile in the world as it actually exists, even leaving aside indigenous peoples and subsistence farmers entirely, small groups of people have been actively living according to Earth Jurisprudence for much longer, though often without the need for written law or statute to constrain them to do so.

The need for formal rules only seems to be felt when people form into communities established on an hierarchical, power-based system. These appear to arise when ownership becomes an issue – in other words when we cease nomadic existence and start to claim a quite imaginary right to the exploitation of a piece of land, almost inevitably on an exclusive basis.



Crystal Waters Permaculture Village is an example where this formalisation has taken place into an explicit set of by laws governing the human community intended to establish and safeguard its nature as a Permaculture community. Rights of a Wild Law character have been formally recognised for the entire Earth Community accordingly, with the exception of a few species of plant considered pests – groundsel in particular.

Although it had been an intentional community since 1975 (for a period of a rather dubious legal status), Crystal Waters began yet another incarnation in 1985 when Max Lindegger, one of the earliest and most committed movers of Permaculture (who has gone on to found the eco-village movement) was called in by the residents to redesign it as a Permaculture village.

This involved dividing the 259 hectares of exhausted farmland – originally cleared bush – and native eucalyptus forest into 80 residential lots arranged in clusters, each comprising of about one quarter of a hectare. The remainder of the land is held in common by a cooperative to which all owners and tenants belong and contribute to financially, in kind, and with their energy in various ways.

Legally this required the formulating an entirely new and quite complex legal structure, with a Body Corporate and a co-operative to which all residents belonged, and individual titles to the 80 lots.

The cooperative owns the land held in common and infrastructure, a number of buildings for community purposes, and a camp site. Residents requiring more land – for instance for growing crops commercially – can rent it from this body.

Physically it required the design of the site on Permaculture principles sympathetically handling the rights of existing beings – for instance trees – and the installation of the infrastructure – dams, access roads to the various clusters, drainage and a reticulated water supply.



The Body Corporate By-Laws, which came into force in 1987 (from memory) are clearly based entirely on Earth Jurisprudence principles.

They establish the primacy of the principles of Permaculture:

− ‘Care for the Earth and
− Care for the People and
− No use or activity upon any lot or upon the common property shall be performed or conducted contrary to such principles.’


In addition:

‘the flora and fauna are to be observed and enjoyed at all times and in such manner as will preserve the environment with full recognition of the environmental sensitivity of the area.’

Dogs and cats are specifically prohibited because of the serious negative impact these animals have on the native wildlife.


The by-laws can be found at

http://www.ecologicalsolutions.com.au/crystalwaters/history/by_laws.html



The population of the community seems to float at around 180 to 200 including about 60 children. One of the most valued features is the fact that the children can grow up in a natural environment in which they can roam freely and explore entirely unsupervised, without the usual preoccupations over safety and security, in the sure knowledge that they can seek out and be taken care of by supportive adults if need be. This also benefits parents, who are relieved of the unending pressure to supervise their offspring.

So successful have these by-laws been that Crystal Waters was awarded a UN World Habitat Award in 1996 for its "pioneering work in demonstrating new ways of low impact, sustainable living", and has won several other awards.


There are a number of web sites to browse. The overview at Max Lindegger’s EcoLogical Solutions site is perhaps the most authoritative:

http://www.ecologicalsolutions.com.au/crystalwaters/overview/overview.html

This includes an interesting review of what has been accomplished over 15 years, though the photo links are somewhat disappointing.


A better visual impression can be gained by clicking on the photo caption links on:

http://www.squidoo.com/crystalwaters


There is no such thing as a typical lot at Crystal Waters, with house designs of every type and ecological construction. They range from tipis and a converted railway carriage through to rammed earth and mud brick, by way of timber-framed and straw bale. However an example is

http://www.ecologicalsolutions.com.au/crystalwaters/real_estate/lot_73/lot_73.htm


A sample of businesses currently being run by community residents are


EcoLogical Solutions

http://www.ecologicalsolutions.com.au/index.php


Crystal Waters Guest House (nice photos)

http://www.waterbreath.com/welcome.htm


SEED International

http://www.crystalwaterscollege.org.au/sections/faculty/SEED_Int.html


The Village Organic Farm

http://www.thevillageorganicfarm.com.au/crystal-waters.html




Regrettably few of the images give a fair impression of this extraordinary, and extraordinary beautiful, place. But a nice account of a visit by someone from the Findhorn Community aptly entitled ‘Treading Lightly on the Earth’ can be found at

http://www.findhorn.org/forums/global/story.php?id=317


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Website of the Day: The Centre for Earth Jurisprudence

My profuse apologies go to all at the Centre for Earth Jurisprudence, as this most inspiring example of the rapid penetration being made by earth jurisprudence was intended to be posted on day one. Please forgive the delay.

It will be well-known to many, as a sizeable party took an active part in Wild Law 2 in November 2006, just as it was getting off the ground.

‘Its mission is to re-envision law and governance in ways that support and protect the health and well being of the Earth community as a whole.’

The Center for Earth Jurisprudence is a joint initiative by both St. Thomas and Barry Universities in Miami, Florida, USA, and began formal teaching in the spring of this year.

Do check out the history page, which also has a link to an indispensible listing of fellow travellers on a global basis. Its at

http://www.earthjuris.org


END

Website of the Day: Earth is Community

Most will already be aware that the life and work of Thomas Berry, ‘one of the greatest thinkers and visionaries of our time’ will be celebrated at this major conference in London tomorrow.

Thomas Berry inspired Cormac Cullinan to conceptualise Wild Law and was instrumental in its formulation.

Cormac Cullinan will be speaking on “The Transformation of Law”.

Other speakers are Matthew Fox, Vandana Shiva, Satish Kumar and Peter Reason.

There will also be some eco-poetry, and some music too – eco or otherwise.



Tickets are available on the door @ £39.


http://www.earth-is-community.org.uk


With apologies for short notice – computer crash.


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Wild Law in Seven Words

Here’s a message from all the other beings with which we share the planet.


They are very happy that we are starting to wake up and remember Wild Law. They were very sad when we rejected it and chose instead to leave Eden, and they have been very sorry to see all the pain and suffering we have caused to ourselves and to the Earth as a result.


They want to remind us of what we have forgotten, to help us with our task.


Its called the Law of the Wilderness. The one law they all live by, and have always been in harmony as a result.


It is very simple.

Respect us and leave us in peace.

That is all they ask, and all we need to do.


They wish us a pleasant journey, and look forward to welcoming us back soon.


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Website of the day: Triodos Bank

TRIODOS BANK

Hopefully this is old hat to everyone. But if not, what could be more inspiring than a bank which lends only to organisations which create real social, environmental and cultural value?

‘Each one is a practical and well-grounded initiative dedicated to social aims which benefit the community, care for the environment, respect human freedom and develop individual talents and capacities. As part of our commitment to transparency, our Project List shows all the activities we finance in the UK and Ireland at the time of printing. We publish details of all our lending because we believe you should be able to judge for yourself the claims we make about our ethical approach.’

And a very inspiring read it is, too.

Triodos offers a full range of services to businesses and charities, and a great range of savings accounts for personal banking.

Some accounts are targetted at a particular sector and support organisations championing it. The Earth Saver account is ‘a secure, flexible savings account for people who want to fight climate change’ which donates the equivalent of 0.25% of the average balance of funds held to Friends of the Earth. The Organic Saver benefits the Soil Association, and there are ones for the The Fairtrade Foundation, Wildlife Trusts, the World Development Movement, Quakers, Buddhists and more.

Minimum deposit £100. Everyone should have an account here, even if only for solidarity and the uplifting magazine!


http://www.triodos.co.uk


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Website of the day: The Web of Hope

Pride of place goes to the Web of Hope in honour and celebration of the life and achievements of Anita Roddick. There is a nice tribute to her on the homepage.

Not many web sites that have a patron, but this one does. Its none other than Hugh Fearnley-Whittingstall. Between the two you get a pretty good sense of where its is coming from.

Here’s what he has to say:

‘Everyone who makes contact with the web of hope becomes part of the solution. The result is an ever-widening virtuous circle of positive change - change achieved not by conflict, but by example; not by competition, but by mutual support.

‘The potential is mind-boggling. If you're interested, I would suggest a simple way forward - just stay in touch with the site, and watch it grow. The moment you feel inclined to bring something to it, don't hesitate. Your thought, however small or local, could be the vital link in a chain, completing yet another strand in the web.’


A natural home for Wild Law, clearly…

The link given is to a page entitled Engage, which seems to sum up what Wild Law is all about:


‘Although small actions all count, true systemic change within our political and economic systems will require a shift from individual to group or collective efforts. We all know that actions like going to the bottle bank will not save the world by themselves.’

Surf your way from there.

http://thewebofhope.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=269

Websites of the day - Introduction

Introduction

Thought I’d post a just couple of websites a day for inspiration in the lead up to Wild Law 3. Fellow travelers, positive developments, vectors for change – things like that.

For when you need to kick back, veg out, or reach out to reality.

Feel free to add to the diversity.


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Is there time for Wild Law?

Posted: Wed Sep 12, 2007 12:09 pm    Post subject: Is there time for Wild Law?


The latest IPCC prediction is that the Arctic will be ice free by 2030. Catastrophe is therefore imminently upon us. Arguably this cannot now be averted. Humanity is therefore in a crisis situation on a global scale.

Wild Law is desperately needed. Now.

But the system being what it is, lamentably there is little or no prospect of Wild Law being implemented on the comprehensive scale necessary in the foreseeable future. And certainly not fast enough to make the slightest difference to this dire outcome of our own folly.

A change to environmental law of the magnitude required is a massive undertaking, both politically and administratively. It can only come about quickly if backed by a strong and absolutely committed government pushing through the mass of primary legislation required on an urgent basis.

That in itself would require the subordination of most if not all the usual calls on the business of parliament – in other words a radical rewriting of the political agenda.

It would also demand either a huge majority or a cross-party political consensus, particularly with the narrow interests of so many stakeholders apparently under threat.

Such an impetus has rarely been seen outside of wartime, and is unlikely to emerge until we feel equally imperilled. In other words, only when the crisis has already broken upon us with overwhelming force will we start to react effectively.

And when it is, by the same token, already too late to influence the outcome.



This analysis, emphatically, is not to suggest that Wild Law is therefore irrelevant or futile. The conclusions that should be drawn are:

1. That we cannot look to Wild Law – or anything else – to avert an environmental crisis that is now inevitable and which will be severe, global, on-going and multi-faceted.

2. For that very reason the transition to a Wild Law framework of environmental protection is an absolute imperative and all the more urgently required.

3. Wild Law can only make a positive impact on the environment when it manifests in concrete actions.

4. That can only come about when it is has been translated into comprehensive legislation that has been enacted and come into force.

5. Within the UK that requires adoption by at least one political party that is in or succeeds in winning office, and ideally cross-party support on the broadest possible basis.

6. To achieve that will be an inevitably organic process requiring time and cultivation, which under normal circumstances is unlikely to bear fruit for several years at least.

7. It should therefore be of the highest priority that a start be made as soon as practically possible.

8. The risk is that as it currently stands, Wild Law courts the danger of being marginalised or worse still dismissed altogether as ephemeral, wishy-washy, romantic or utopian.

9. This requires that Wild Law be firmed up into a set of proposals that can be put forward in a form readily digestible by politicians – ie readily understandable, practicable, translatable into legislation, sellable to the electorate, and sufficiently robust to stand up to the flak that it will attract from opposition of all types.

10. That is likely to be considerable, given that corporate and other interests will almost inevitably act out of short-term self-interest, perceive Wild Law as a threat to their autonomy of action – which it inevitably is – and line up powerfully to oppose it.

11. To counter that and to accelerate its acceptance politically, there is a parallel need to popularise Wild Law to provide a groundswell of support at grassroots level.

12. An allied or alternative strategy might be to concentrate instead or as well as on achieving adoption at the EU level.

13. That process is essentially the same, other than it would require networking and co-ordinated action with those promoting Wild Law in the other EU states.

14. It has the advantages that some of those states and the EU itself seem more favourably disposed to environmental protection than the UK, and that any victories will bear fruit in 27 member states rather than just one. The downside includes that it will require a great deal of co-ordination, language barriers, distance and the like.



Given the timing and urgency, these would seem imperative issues to thrash out at the Wild Law – a Response to Climate Change workshop later this month, with a view to ending up with a fairly clear vision of the path forward and an outline on timing.


In parallel, this forum proved a place to discuss these ideas, and how - if this analysis is accepted in whole or part – we can act as effectively as the situation demands, given the lamentable climate of awareness as it currently stands.


NB Those requiring more on the contention that crisis is imminent and unavoidable will find it set out more fully under the topic ‘Can we save the polar bear…?’ elsewhere in this forum.


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‘Australia will be ‘uninhabitable’ by 2070’

AMENDED IN BROWSER – see forum for final

I don’t want to fall into the role of profit of doom, but by chance keep stumbling upon things which support the somewhat radical contention I’ve put forward, so I’m posting them when they are of sufficient magnitude to be convincing.

The latest banner to float across my browser said ‘Australia will be ‘uninhabitable’ by 2070’

http://www.thefirstpost.co.uk/index.php?menuID=2&subID=1395


In fact the article actually says that it will be Sydney that will be uninhabitable, but if that is so it is a pretty fair bet that almost all of Oz be too. The fact is the vast majority of that continent is already.

The conclusion has been prompted by a scientific report on climate change commissioned by the New South Wales government.

‘The report, which forecasts a 40 per cent drop in rainfall by 2070, presses hard on the heels of the shock announcement by Queensland's Premier that from next December state residents stand to drink recycled sewerage.’

It also goes on to say that tomorrow the IPCC will predict that:

‘… in 30 years the Barrier Reef could well be dead, a victim of rising sea temperatures coupled with bleaching of the fragile coral.’

One only has to reflect on the fact that Australia continues to refuse to sign the Kyoto protocol to see how massively – and self-destructively – we remain in denial.

Meanwhile Londoners and others, who have been drinking recycled sewerage for as long as I can remember, might want to reflect on the true quality of life that inhabitants of this, the forth biggest economy in the world, actually enjoy, in the light of the shock mentioned above. And what that means about the environment they populate.


Best regards



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Wild Law Successes - Introduction

NB TWEAKED ON POSTING

Intoduction

The proposal is to use this topic as a place to post concrete examples of Wild Law successes and discuss them.

These need not necessarily be legislation. Examples which manifest Wild Law principles outside of legal process might also be included. New ideas seem to have a habit of arising spontaneously in several places and forms at more or less the same time, so even those which do so entirely unconsciously could be useful as examples of an idea and ethic whose time has come.

The intention is that by collecting what we know individually into a rather rude database a better appreciation of where Wild Law has actually got to in terms of penetration will emerge. Networking thus should help to keep everyone in the frame at minimum effort.

It may well throw up a few surprises. In particular, it might emerge that there is a divergence in what Wild Law is considered to be and to embrace. Which is fine, and may well serve to stimulate the debate and sharpen collective thinking.

It can also act as a point of departure for those coming into Wild Law afresh, and as a reference source for journalists and academics, albeit rather makeshift.

With that in mind, it would be helpful if the subject of each post could be explicit in stating the initiative it discusses. That will make it easier to sort and access in what may well turn into a quite long list fairly quickly.

A case can be made for making a separate post for each project accordingly, but as there may be a need to discuss related projects as a group that is left to your discretion.




Just to kick things off on a provisional basis here’s a cut and paste from Simon Boyle’s excellent article in the Guardian of 08 November 2006

http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2006/nov/08/ethicalliving.society

‘… a body of legal opinion is proposing what are being called "wild laws", which would speak for birds and animals, and even rivers and nature. One of the first was introduced in September, when a community of about 7,000 people in Pennsylvania, in the US, adopted what is called [the]Tamaqua Borough Sewage Sludge Ordinance, 2006.

'It was hardly an event to set the world alight, except for two things: it refuses to recognise corporations' rights to apply sewage sludge to land, but it recognises natural communities and ecosystems within the borough as "legal persons" for the purposes of enforcing civil rights. According to Thomas Linzey, the lawyer from the Community Environmental Legal Defense Fund, who helped draft it, this is historic.'

If Simon or anyone else wishes to fine tune this, I’ll be happy to either edit or withdraw this post.



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'Loss of Arctic ice leaves experts stunned'

Posted: Sat Sep 08, 2007 1:34 pm    Post subject: 'Loss of Arctic ice leaves experts stunned'


Just to say I have added another link to ‘can we save the polar bear…’ which is perhaps the hardest hitting, should anyone need further convincing.

Its an article from Tuesday’s Guardian Unlimited called 'Loss of Arctic ice leaves experts stunned'.

It says such things as

'Experts say they are "stunned" by the loss of ice, with an area almost twice as big as the UK disappearing in the last week alone.'

'The Arctic has now lost about a third of its ice since satellite measurements began thirty years ago, and the rate of loss has accelerated sharply since 2002.'

and

'If the increased rate of melting continues, the summertime Arctic could be totally free of ice by 2030.'

For ease of reference, its at:

http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2007/sep/04/climatechange


Please stay positive



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..Emissions trading; more radical thinking

Posted: Sat Sep 08, 2007 11:08 am    Post subject: ...Emissions trading; more radical thinking


Following on from polar bears, it is a relatively quick matter to dispatch the other two propositions and leave you clear to focus.


Will emissions trading, carbon caps, litigation and new
technologies succeed in changing behaviour enough to protect our environment from its biggest threat?


Given what has been said about polar bears, the answer is clearly a resounding no.

We have missed the boat, and are left standing on the quayside, watching forlornly as the distance between us grows inexorably with each passing moment and it sails merrily off into the sunset.

No amount of wheeler-dealing with bits of paper is going to change that, and persisting in trying to buy a berth after the ship has sailed is little more than the panicked response of hysterical people confronted with the realisation that the consequences of their own folly are now inescapable.

The boat we missed was the Noah’s Ark. Unfortunately, given present conditions, there will not be another sailing for the foreseeable future, though with good fortune service may be resumed in ten thousand years or so.

So we find ourselves in what might be described as a counter-Titanic situation – on board we would have been safe; left on dry land we will shortly find ourselves hitting the iceberg - of which there are likely to be more and more given the rate at which the Arctic is breaking up – and submerged under sea water.

The only rational response is to sit down calmly, assess the situation with absolute objectivity, and prepare for what is now inevitable to the limits of our ability. Which is what I take Wild Law to be all about, in essence.

And if it is rigorous and honest, that assessment must reach the unavoidable conclusion that the cause of all the problems is not just a little too much pollution here and there, but the very basis on which western lifestyles are constructed.

Two hundred years of industrialisation have led with absolute inevitability to the situation where the entire planet is trashed and all of us are doomed to live like urchins on a landfill site – inescapably condemned to a lifetime of bad air, polluted water, degraded food; surrounded by rubbish and decay on every side.

The only rational conclusion is to admit the heretical realisation that we simply cannot continue to live in this way. To have the wisdom to change voluntarily to a way of life that embraces simplicity, moderation and respect, radically reduce our demands on the planet, and learn that there is far more peace and happiness to be had in simple pleasures that are inaccessible via a lifestyle of fast living and frenetic consumption.

Apparently the UK population lives at a level of materialism that would require three planet Earths to sustain it, were it universal. We simply cannot go on like this and pretend that a bit of tweaking with the system here and there will render it harmonious and sustainable. It is just pie in the sky, and we have already consumed far more than our fair share.

None of this is to say that there is no place for emissions trading, carbon caps, litigation or new technologies. On the contrary, faced with having to manage change on a massive and probably unprecedented scale, they are amongst the most powerful tools we have for that task, are critical accordingly, and are desperately needed.

It is merely to try to bring home that we remain in denial whilst we try to kid ourselves that these, alone, are the solution, and that we can simply blank out and go back to partying on as outrageously as we did before – exclusively on the expense account of planet and the dispossessed – once we have made a few more tweaks to the system.




So does the problem require more radical thinking?


Inevitably yes, and most urgently. Which surely is what Wild Law is all about. Happily you are meeting to do just that. Go for it for all you are worth.


Stay happy


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Can We Save the Polar Bear?

Truth is a pathless land. Man cannot come to it through any organisation, through any creed, through any dogma, priest or ritual, nor through any philosophic knowledge or psychological technique. He has to find it through the mirror of relationship, through the understanding of the contents of his own mind, through observation and not through intellectual analysis or introspective dissection..."

Krishnamurti

Greetings

The need for Wild Law is urgent and profound. So it is marvellous to see so many dedicated people giving so freely of their time and resources to advance the initiative.

Having been privileged to watch the genesis of the Wild Law movement within the UK from its earliest days, it has astonished me how much progress has been made so quickly in moving forward a conceptual framework that is so necessary, so bravely radical, yet at the same time so vulnerable to superficial dismissal accordingly.

So to help get the up-coming event off to a flying start and attempt to focus and galvanise thinking, at the risk of being controversial I would like to dispense summarily with one the questions raised on the flyer here and now.



Delegates are asked to consider:

‘Can we save the polar bear and Arctic communities using existing legal models?’

The answer Is very simple.

No. We cannot. Much though I regret to say so. Other than via the arguably worse alternative – at minimum from the polar bears’ point of view – of a life sentence without commutation in zoos. Or perhaps via some kind of unsavoury and open-ended feeding programme on the Arctic islands or wherever else they might happen to wash up when the polar ice disappears.

The latest prediction is that the Arctic will be ice free in summer by 2030. Which tolls the death knell for a highly specialised pure carnivore adapted to predate seals through ice.


http://www.theecologist.org/news_detail.asp?content_id=1038



Unfortunately, the very idea that Wild Law can somehow prevent that from happening indicates that as a body, in spite of the commitment, the advocates of Wild Law have yet to fully appreciate what is at stake and grasp the nettle, and, in that respect at least, differ little from the population at large. For it is to remain in denial, as I believe George Monbiot pointed out tellingly to the Environmental Law Foundation not so long ago.


Why? Simply because of the lead time on dissipation of global warming gases. No one knows what it is - as it is unknowable in advance - but the consensus formerly lay somewhere between a decade and 25 years to stabilise. The BBC website states:

One of the main problems with carbon dioxide is the length of time it remains in the atmosphere as it can take around 100 years for it to disperse (even after some of it is absorbed by vegetation). Therefore, even if we stopped CO2 emissions immediately, the effects of what we've already done would still influence our weather for years to come.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/climate/evidence/too_late.shtml


To keep the maths easy, take a conservative estimate of 13 years. This means were we to stop all greenhouse emissions today, global warming would not decline to its normal background until 2020. By which time most of the Arctic, which is nothing but a huge lump of ice floating in the sea, will have melted.

The chances of what then remains being viable in an ocean that is already heating up seem slim. And that analysis leaves aside the frightening prospect that positive feedback mechanisms – of which there are several reasonably postulated – have not kicked in already and produced runaway global warming quite regardless of what we might do.

But there is no prospect of us ceasing all greenhouse activities today. Or tomorrow. Or for the foreseeable future. The political will is simply not there. We are not even on target to cut emissions back to Kyoto levels, which are way higher. To quote the BBC again:

To stabilise climate change altogether, emissions of CO2 would have to be reduced by around 70% globally - the Kyoto Protocol doesn't propose reductions of anything near this level.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/climate/evidence/too_late.shtml


We have to get clear in our thinking and see that Wild Law [u]alone[/u] is not, and cannot be, an effective response to the crisis that we have already unleashed and is inevitably bearing down upon us. The lead times are simply too long. To explain that further would lengthen this contribution excessively, so I will post them separately under the heading ‘Is there time for Wild Law?’

Suffice to say that the above analysis gives us a window of only 10 years to save even the last iceberg that might remain, and that is based on a most generous assumption. About the time [i]An Inconvenient Truth[/i] came out in 2005, Al Gore gave us about 10 years to make the critical decisions if we were to turn things around in time. I regret to say I believe his estimate to be optimistic. Since then two years have passed with nothing meaningful having happened by way of response. Meanwhile the Arctic continues its meltdown at unprecedented rates.

It is critical to understand that what is at stake here is not merely the future of the polar bear. Nor that of all the other creatures that make their homes there, from reindeer, caribou and arctic foxes, through to the vast number of migratory birds which nest and raise their young during the Arctic summer, many of which pass through this country twice a year on route.

The polar regions are critical in the global circulation of both and atmosphere and oceans, and in maintaining the equilibrium between incoming and outgoing radiation on a planetary basis. Without the Arctic we will be in an unprecedented and therefore unpredictable situation – quite literally. But we do know enough to be sure that the changes in the global patterns of both will be dire.

For instance the chances are that the Gulf Stream, which is responsible for this countries anomalously benign climate, will almost certainly shift, if not cease.

To illustrate what that would mean consider this. New York City, with its famously ferocious winter, lies at 40.47 degrees of latitude. London, in contrast, is way to the north at 51.32. To put that in perspective, New York lies at about the same latitude as such balmy places as Madrid - 40.26 degrees, Ankara - 39.55, and Istanbul - 41.01. While London equates to somewhere way beyond the Canadian border, slightly north of such frigid venues as Calgary, a former Winter Olympic venue, at 51.01.

It would be over-simplistic to suggest that London will therefore become similar to Calgary weather-wise, but clearly the likelihood we must anticipate is for changes that are dramatic and inclement, to put it mildly. In turn this will radically effect the flora, and to appreciate what it will be like for us and our offspring we must understand that plant migration to plug the gaps is a thing that happens very slowly on the scale of human lifetimes.



What we must conclude from all of this is that whatever steps we now take, the probability is that catastrophe cannot be averted, and has to be anticipated. If we are prepared to look that in the eye, take it fully on board and choose to respond to it rationally, we must do so immediately – and that means by concrete actions. Merely talking is no longer sufficient, however laudable the objective.

Wild Law has a crucial role to play, and the faster it can be put into place the better. But we must be clear in seeing that it cannot be seen as an effective response to ward off the crisis that approaches. It is too long-term an endeavour, and time has already run out.

Instead we must see it as an essential tool that we desperately need to moderate the worst extremes that cannot now be avoided. And, perhaps most appropriately, in the healing and reordering that must inevitably follow.

So I wish you all the very best with your workshop, and would encourage all involved to do all in their power to further Wild Law up the agenda as swiftly as they possibly can.

But to also accept that the time for prevarication and excuses on a personal level is past, that the time to put their ecological footprint in order is now, and it is absolutely imperative that they do so.

Kindest regards


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