Can you give Gordon Brown a call? - 16:30 tomorrow

It’s not often one receives an email from a head of state asking you to give them a call, but that’s what happened yesterday, even as the Ed Miliband story was being posted up.

Turns out to be from none other than Gordon Brown, the british prime minister, who has approached the pp (and no doubt many thousands of other people) looking for mass support for a bold stance at Copenhagen at the end of this week.

So he has teamed up with AVAAZ to do what must be the first prime minister’s mass phone call in the uk, which is happening tomorrow at 16:30.

That may not be quite as uplifting for the ego as a personal email and personal call, while the chances of actually getting heard are probably still in the order of 10,000 to one, or more ephemeral still. Yet it is still quite something politically.

So here’s the email in full so anyone who might want to add weight to this can hook up with the PM in person.

Must be worth the effort. The more support Gordon Brown has over climate change and the more radical he can be encouraged to be over what he is prepared to put on the table and the solutions he is prepared to back the better, and the greater our not particularly sparkling chances of turning climate change around.

Here's the link in case the ones below have got corrupted:

Why not give me a call?


Have fun!




From: "Gordon Brown" <info@email-new.labour.org.uk>
Subject: Could you give me a call?
Date: 14 December 2009 11:22 AM


steve,

I’ll be heading out to Copenhagen for the climate change conference soon - but the part I’ll be playing there is bolstered by the difference you and thousands of other people are making by taking part in Ed's Pledge.

That’s why I’ll be taking part in a mass phone call in association with Avaaz this coming Wednesday (16 Dec) at 4.30pm – taking questions, listening to people’s views and making sure that the opinions of people across the country get a hearing at Copenhagen.

Why not give me a call?

Ed has been keeping me up to date with the Ed’s Pledge campaign and I wanted to thank you for all the work you’ve been putting in.

The thousands of letters to l ocal newspapers, the thousands co-signing Ed’s letter to David Cameron and all your efforts to spread the word about climate change have truly been a sight to see.

Sign up to take part in the phone call

People can’t be spectators to important events – the power to change the world comes from people working and fighting for what’s right together.

Tell me the message you’d like me to give to world leaders – sign up for the phone call

I hope to speak to you on Wednesday

Gordon

Open email to Ed Miliband

Here's an email sent this weekend to Ed Miliband, the lead UK minister for climate change, taking issue with his view that it is "outrageous" to suggest that what little remains wild in Britain should remain so.

[15 December: Ed's email stating this (to which this is a response) is now appended]

Ed in general has been doing an outstanding job on climate change. Most impressive and more or less unique is Ed's Pledge, his on-line campaign to build the critical mass of support needed to get the right result from COP 15 in Copenhagen.

However he has somehow not yet fully grasped the biodiversity arguments. Instead he has managed to come to the conclusion that what little remains wild in the uk should be sacrificed to windfarms and the like to meet consumers' insatiable demand for cheap energy.

Anyway, read on for the arguments.

Numbers make an enormous difference to such things. So should anyone happen to be moved to support, just paste a copy into an email with the heading:

re: Sign My Letter to David Cameron

add your comments and send it to "Ed Miliband"

info@email-new.labour.org.uk

(well that's the one he gives out, anyway. Given that address, might be an idea add to that you want him to receive it in person.)

In closing, should add that this is not a foray into politics. Just an exercise in rationality, attempting to reason objectively with those so engaged.






Dear Ed

Congratulations on Ed's Pledge and the tremendous work you are doing, especially in respect of COP 15.

Sorry to have to come back to you on this at a supremely busy time, but there is a fundamental flaw in the thinking here, and one that could prove fatal.

Ken Clarke was right on this. It is not a question of nimbyism, bourgeois values, or sentimentality.

It is the indisputable fact that wild places and undisturbed ecologies are absolutely essential for our survival. Simple as that. Because they provide the ecological services on which we all depend for our existence.

The various environmental crises which confront us so forcibly are simply the result of having failed to respect that immutable fact. The underlying reason for our current plight is that we have commandeered massively more than our sustainable share of the wilderness to serve our perceived (and often highly questionable) needs.

James Lovelock calculates that sustainability requires leaving no less than 90% of Earth in its natural state, entirely uninterfered with by human activity. Instead, the entire UK has been so modified and subordinated to human desires that there remains no wilderness to speak of, very little in the way of wild places, and the vast majority of the land mass is altered massively and detrimentally to serve human demands.

The solution to climate change is not to still further compromise or destroy those last remnants for the purpose of meeting demands that are grossly inflated by our refusal to accept our ecological limits. That is the critical mistake in your thinking.

In reality that is to add one of the final nails to our coffin by further undermining ecological integrity and the planetary life support system as a whole - which can already be seen on many measures to be approaching collapse. All in the perceived furtherance of living standards which are the root cause of the problem in the first place. Thus terminates our viability.

Its is as flawed a logic as to conceive the solution to be cutting down what remains of the Amazon rainforests to provide fuel to meet our energy requirements. Or to put up wind farms, for that matter. It would the same process. The only difference is that the UK is more advanced in the delivery than the Amazon nations.

If one of the richest countries in the world is not prepared to relent from subjugating all of nature to economic ends it renders bankrupt your negotiating position towards the developing countries - especially in respect of REDD, and indeed in the maintenance of ecological integrity generally. You can hardly expect the developing nations with their real and pressing needs to accept what you consider to be 'outrageous' when merely suggested for the UK. And if we do not have ecological integrity we have nothing, for on that everything depends.

Yet the importance of REDD must already be clear to you. Similarly the critical role of biodiversity. The Executive Secretary of the Convention on Biological Diversity has already stressed that biodiversity is part of the solution to climate change; that healthy terrestrial and marine ecosystems are essential to the health of the atmosphere; and at COP 15 he has submitted a further expert report driving home that critical message.

Vital, then, that you appreciate wilderness is absolutely essential, and not a luxury to be traded away. To solve climate change and our other ecological crises we urgently need more, not less. And every nation has an inescapable duty in that respect.

To this end, please recognise the pivotal importance of large scale ecological restoration, as exemplified astonishingly by the Chinese on the Loess Plateau - an area the size of Belgium - and the groundbreaking work of John Liu at Rothansted.

And please understand that the world will no longer accept the implied imperialism in expecting the developing nations to deliver the ecological services which the UK considers completely dispensable on its own turf, and is prepared to undermine absolutely in the furtherance of preserving its standard of living.

So it is critical that you re-evaluate and take this on board urgently, even as you are in the process of negotiating the Copenhagen Treaty. It is absolutely vital that it is understood. By you. By Gordon Brown. By the other world leaders. And by everyone else involved in the negotiations.

The answer to climate change is not to complete the historical process of subjugating all of nature to meet human desires to provide more and yet more again. That is the endgame in our current and historical trajectory, and it ends - inevitably - in our self-destruction.

It is have the wisdom and humility to learn how to live well and happily within our ecological limits. Which is what we are now called on to do. That must mean valuing, protecting and restoring natural ecosystems over our more frivolous and debatable needs - even our indulgent, inflated demand for cheap energy on a massive scale - as well as getting back to real values.


We have no choice in this. You can negotiate all you like with each other, and for as long as you wish. But there can be no negotiating with Nature. And we can but accept her timing, or be swept away.

Canute showed that a long time ago. Please do not make the same mistake. Have the vision to re-evaluate now and rise to a pivotal role in changing perceptions - and in pulling us out of the fire.

That's Ed's Pledge. Thank you for it, profoundly.

Wishing you the absolute best for the rest of the summit.

PS
The importance of wilderness is far more eloquently argued by The John Muir Trust, the leading British actor in this field, which has been promoting the re-establishment of wilderness in the UK for over 20 years, and putting it into practice on its own lands and by assisting others similarly moved. Becoming fluent with their thinking would add new dimensions to your understanding and vision both domestically and internationally, and is most highly commended.



Ed's emails

Email 1

On 21 Oct 2009, at 15:06, Ed Miliband wrote:

If you can't see this email correctly, please click here

Last week it was a backbencher, today it's one of the most important shadow cabinet members undermining the fight against climate change.

Last week I told you about a backbench Tory who said those of us concerned by climate change were part of a 'lunatic consenus'. Over a thousand of you wrote to your local newspapers, letters were printed in newspapers across the country and we made it clear that the public have had enough of climate change deniers. To all of you who wrote, thank you.

But today I'm writing to you again with worse news. Ken Clarke - one of the most important and best known Tories - has gone on record today opposing wind farms, saying: "My view is that those few wild and open (land) spaces that we have left in Britain should not be used for wind turbines."

I've decided to write personally to David Cameron, asking him to overrule Ken Clarke and make their policy clear. I'm going to deliver the letter tomorrow morning but need your support if it's to have impact.

Click to co-sign my letter to David Cameron

Ken Clarke's comments are outrageous and have an immediate effect of putting off investors and stopping the creation of green jobs in our renewables industry.

If one thousand of you sign this letter with me TODAY it will have much more media impact and show Ken Clarke that the British public want their politicians to take climate change seriously.

Click to co-sign my letter to David Cameron

Let's send another clear message that those undermining the fight to combat climate change will be challenged every step of the way.

Ed

PS – Once you’ve signed the letter please forward this email to your friends and ask them to sign as well – the more of us there are, the stronger we are.


To unsubscribe, please click here.
Privacy: we won't pass on your email address to anyone else. See http://www.labour.org.uk/privacy

Reproduced from an email sent by the Labour Party, promoted by Ray Collins, General Secretary, the Labour Party, on behalf of the Labour Party, all at 39 Victoria Street, London, SW1H 0HA

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Email 2

Begin forwarded message:

From: Ed Miliband
Date: 22 October 2009 13:30:38 BST

Subject: Success

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Thank you and well done.

After a huge effort by people who've signed up to the Ed's Pledge campaign, the Guardian has reported that Ken Clarke has retracted his comments calling for an end to the building of windfarms on land.

Yesterday was an incredible victory for everyone who’s signed up to the campaign.

Help recruit more people to this campaign - to fight for more victories like this

We set a target of getting 1000 signatures for my letter to David Cameron - you broke it within an hour. We set another target of 2000 signatures - you broke that too. Right now over 3000 of you have signed with more still coming in.

Winning arguments like this makes a differ ence. Climate change is too important to be left to be dealt with by people who resist the low carbon technologies of the future.

You showed that the power to make a difference lies with thousands of people working together.

Help recruit more people to this campaign - to fight for more victories like this

The more people we get involved in our campaign, the stronger each of our individual voices become.

So I'm asking you, with 46 days to go until the make-or-break Copenhagen summit, to bring more people into this campaign.

Today’s victory shows that, together, we really can make change happen.

Click here to tell your friends about Ed' s Pledge and the victories we can achieve together

Thanks

Ed

Hot and Cold on Independence day

Here's some light relief to lift our hearts and celebrate independence, courtesy of the WE Campaign.

Happily it brings together two current themes as it just happens to feature a pig, along with a rather burnt looking pancake or tortilla and a fridge.

The main point, though, is a rather simplified account of how to resolve the thorny conundrum of averting damaging climate change whilst continuing with extraordinarily high energy lifestyles. That goes for all conventional inhabitants of developed nations, and quite a few others elsewhere too, of course, not just the dominant population of Turtle Island.

The WE Campaign successfully re-invented itself as Repower America last summer, and Al Gore has continued to exert unprecedented (seriously) influence via a thoroughly statesperson like performance at the helm of the Alliance for Climate Protection. This embodies both organisations and apparently some others too.

Repower America has no less an aim than to get the States off carbon entirely in just 10 years, whilst simultaneously rebooting the economy via the green stimulus and relieving the perceived strategic vulnerability of massive dependence on imported oil and astronomical overseas borrowings to pay for it. Here's a succinct summary of the campaign's objectives.

It is succeeding magnificently. At the end of last month the House of Representatives passed the Clean Energy Security Bill in a hard fought vote in which the dirty energy lobby exceeded themselves in greenwash and disinformation. According to the WE Campaign, the opposition

'stepped up a blatant distortion campaign on TV and behind closed doors to scare Congress from taking action.'

'Members of Congress who oppose clean energy paraded around a map that distorts the truth about curbing carbon pollution. Not only was the analysis misleading, the computer file still listed the original author -- the coal lobby.

'And another group, funded by the fossil-fuel industry, released targeted TV ads designed to drum up fear ahead of the vote.'

It is clear the efforts of Repower America were absolutely critical in swinging the vote. Not merely the shear political clout wielded by a campaign which has almost 2.3 million members - an extraordinary number - but by the pressure they have brought to bear by raising massive on-line petitions in days, donating for the advertising necessary to counter the greenwash, and sieging congresspeople by phone, mail and in person. People power or active democracy at its best, as you will. Most heartening stuff.

The bill has now passed to the Senate but it is expected that this sort of thing will be racheted up yet again in an all-out effort to defeat it. Al Gore said

'The American Clean Energy Security (ACES) Act is one of the most important pieces of legislation Congress will ever pass. This comprehensive legislation will make meaningful reductions in global warming pollution, spur investment in clean energy technology, create jobs and reduce our reliance on foreign oil.

The next step is passage of this legislation by the Senate to help restore America's leadership in the world and begin, at long last, to put in place a truly global solution to the climate crisis.

We are at an extraordinary moment, with an historic opportunity to confront one of the world’s most serious challenges. Our actions now will be remembered by this generation and all those to follow – in our own nation and others around the world.'

So much to celebrate on the day, and much to engage in.

Wherever you happen to be you are welcome in the We Campaign, and regardless of nationality. It's critical, it's interesting, and it takes but a few moments to join. So we all should be adding our weight to the critical mass. Two million is an extraordinary achievement, but Al is aiming for 10 million. That would make it the largest campaign in American history - and a truly irresistible force for the planet. You can join it here.

Yet there are are currently around 6.8 billions two legged monsters here on Earth, so where are the rest? And what can they be thinking? Of the mass of humanity 10 million is but a drop in the ocean, and we have known from the outset that if America goes down everything is lost.

Regardless, a great deal to celebrate universally, so have a happy day one and all. And better luck with the pancakes.

Pig Business: 2200 tomorrow

Excellent news. Tracy Worcester's documentary Pig Business has finally cleared the legal obstacles and should finally be shown on More 4 at 10.00 pm on Tuesday 30 June. It's going out as part of their 'Great British Food Fight', though it is relevant to food production everywhere, particularly in the USA and the EU.

Don't miss this one. It's vitally important for the pigs, sure, and that matters -tremendously. Just as important for humanity that it decisively rejects the mindset that embraces such indefensible, abject cruelty as a necessity, economic expedient, or even revels in it as a positive improvement in efficiency.

Yet this film is far more than just an expose horrors of factory pig farming. Along the way it questions our whole relationship to food and the environmental consequences arising from it at a most fundamental level. In essence, you get what you pay for - be it benign and enlightened, or utterly unacceptable. Here we get that message unequivocally and straight from the horse's mouth.

In that regard we learn of the attitude of one of the massive companies involved in this type of agribusiness, whilst under scrutiny gaping holes are revealed in European Union policy as we see the catastrophic effect it has had on Poland and its agricultural sector, one of the the most sustainable and environmentally benign in Europe, and the Polish diaspora that has resulted. Anyone interested in Poland will therefore find it essential viewing.

Absolutely not to be missed is Bobby Kennedy Jr, who has to be the epitome of an environmental lawyer and a lion amongst environmentalists. Just imagine a world where every environmental lawyer was as a unequivocal and committed. Here again he has been right in the thick of things opposing pig business from the beginning, and finishes the programme with some stirring and well-targetted oratory which we could all well heed.

All yours. Previous posting discussing the film and the legal obstacles it has had to surmount can be found here and here.

Another moment of terrible significance

If the breaking of the ice bridge on the Wilkins Ice Shelf at the start of April was, as a Times leader so rightly reported, a moment of terrible significance, (covered here and here) then what is now happening has to be all the more so.

The Wilkins Ice Shelf has since destabilised and is starting to calve - in other words its seaward edge is starting to break up on a massive scale.

This was reported a few days ago the European Space Agency - though there seems to be no report to be found on its rather rudimentary website - and covered 3 days ago by the news agency UPI. However the mainstream media has in the main been slow to pick up this key development.

From what has trickled in subsequently we learn that 'about 700 sq km of ice - bigger than Singapore or Bahrain and almost the size of New York - has broken off the Wilkins this month and shattered into a mass of icebergs.'

Scientists estimate that 'over the next several weeks the Wilkins shelf will lose some 1,300 square miles (3,370 square kilometers), an area larger than the state of Rhode Island, or two-thirds the size of Luxembourg.'

While more forebodingly: 'even more ice could break off "if the connection to Latady Island is lost" though it is as yet unclear that will happen.'

The best impression can be had by viewing the image slideshow on the ESA website on which Latady Island is clearly visible, while making allowance for the fact that the accompanying text is hopelessly retrospective.

While here is a sample of the press coverage.

The Independent reports

'Humbert told Reuters about 700 sq km of ice - bigger than Singapore or Bahrain and almost the size of New York - has broken off the Wilkins this month and shattered into a mass of icebergs.
'She said 370 sq kms of ice had cracked up in recent days.'


The Guardian story went out 9 hours ago, which tells us

'"The retreat of Wilkins Ice Shelf is the latest and the largest of its kind"'.

'The Wilkins shelf, which is the size of Jamaica, lost 14 percent of its mass last year'

'Average temperatures in the Antarctic Peninsula have risen by 3.8 degrees Fahrenheit (2.5 Celsius) over the past 50 years — [sic] higher than the average global rise, according to studies.
'Over the next several weeks, scientists estimate the Wilkins shelf will lose some 1,300 square miles (3,370 square kilometers) — [sic] a piece larger than the state of Rhode Island, or two-thirds the size of Luxembourg.

'"We are not sure if a new stable ice front will now form between Latady Island, Petrie Ice Rises and Dorsey Island," said Angelika Humbert of Germany's Muenster University Institute of Geophysics.
'But even more ice could break off "if the connection to Latady Island is lost," she said, "though we have no indication that this will happen in the near future."'


The Telegraph adds

'David Vaughan of the British Antarctic Survey said: "The retreat of Wilkins Ice Shelf is the latest and largest of its kind.
'"Eight separate ice shelves along the Antarctic Peninsula have shown signs of retreat over the last few decades.
'"There is little doubt that these changes are the result of atmospheric warming on the Antarctic Peninsula, which has been the most rapid in the Southern Hemisphere."'

We should be watching with absolute attention as this drama unfolds, with the key question being how the glacier behind disintegrating ice shelf will respond.

Yet also for the historic drama. Not often in humanity's history have we been presented with the chance to bid farewell to an Earth feature as old as the hills - literally - and forever.

Should ever it reappear it will not be in be in the foreseeable future. Nor prior to the next ice age. So make sure your kids get the chance to witness this for themselves.

Wild Law: EPA v ESA

This is just to post up a story from the New York Times mainly of interest to wild lawyers, climate activists, and those concerned over the fate of species threatened by climate change, as well as those interested in politics and current affairs more generally. And of vital interest to polar bears.

The issue is the sparring currently going on to determine whether the Environmental Protection Agency has the right to act over climate change under the Endangered Species Act to protect such animals. In the lead for ursus maritimus are The Center for Biological Diversity, the Natural Resources Defense Council and other groups represented by Earthjustice.

'For now, the decision rests with Obama's Interior secretary, Ken Salazar. Congress has given him authority to strike the greenhouse gas exemption and other Bush-era changes to the Endangered Species Act. He must act by May 10.'

So a pretty hot topic - read on if it grabs.

Earthly Rights

In case James Lovelock's views proved disquieting, here's something refreshing and positive which all should find inspiring.

It's a short and very readable introduction to the concept of Wild Law by author, ecologist and academic Stephan Harding which appeared in The Guardian on 03 April.

Wild lawyers will obviously be heartened to see the subject starting to get some serious coverage.

While those yet to get a handle on this as yet little recognised but critical issue will find it a very easy way in. One only has to reflect on why we are in this predicament to recognise its central importance in everything that is transpiring.

Happily, by the same token it also offers one of the few positive ways forward that remain open. These things are not fixed in stone and can be changed - if there is sufficient will.

It is one of the very few options remaining that has the potential to bring about the necessary changes in attitude - and crucially behaviour - on a global scale fast enough to give us the possibility to head off the worst of James Lovelock's predictions, and contain whatever damage we have already caused to the least that is now possible.

And it can be done on a global scale and very quickly - through a Universal Declaration of Planetary Rights at the United Nations. This is a very new and radical idea and time is very short, but the head of steam is already beginning to build, and at a very high level.

To be part of it, join the trees have rights too campaign now, and give the future a chance.

This is such a critical issue it will be covered in more depth as soon as time allows.

For those inspired by these themes, there is a chance to meet Stephan Harding, Polly Higgins, the prime mover behind the Universal Declaration of Planetary Rights, and many of the leading thinkers in the field of Wild Law at the Wild Law Weekend which will take place in Dorset, England at the end of September, which can probably be described as the premiere event globally in the field.

As some of the terms may prove to be somewhat esoteric, here are some definitions with links for greater depth:

Jurisprudence is the theory and philosophy of law.

Earth Jurisprudence is the branch of jurisprudence which is based on the idea that humans are only one part of a wider community of beings and that the welfare of each member of that community is dependent on the welfare of the Earth as a whole.

Earth Jurisprudence means looking at the actual philosophy and value systems that underpin legal and governance systems, and making sure that they support, rather than undermine, the integrity and health of the Earth.

Implicit in Earth Jurisprudence is the idea that rights of other components of the biosphere such as plants and animals need to be acknowledged and recognised (in contrast to dominant legal systems in which they are currently not).

Here is the Earth Jurisprudence website for more.

Wild Law is the manifestation of Earth Jurisprudence in practice, meaning where it exists in draft or actual laws and governance.

Apocalyse shortly! - Lovelock

Last October the prognosticator carried Apocalypse shortly? We should know next by next summer.

It was prompted by the disquieting discovery in the dying days of the last Arctic summer of the unprecedented release of methane in large quantity from the Arctic sea floor, and attempted to distill the grave implications resulting.

James Lovelock's latest thoughts on the matter are simpler. They come from an interview carried in the Irish Times of 16 April under the title The genial prophet of climate doom.

Why? Because for Lovelock, it is not a question of if. It is now a certainty.

Along with most climate scientists and specialists in the region, in the case of the Arctic ice the debate is no longer of whether it will endure, merely one of when. From there the process is inevitable:

'Within 30 years, he believes, the Arctic’s floating summer sea ice will all be melted. The polar caps will no longer reflect sunlight back into space and, instead, the ocean will absorb sunlight, heating up. The permafrosts in northern Canada and Siberia will thaw out, releasing carbon dioxide (CO2). At the same time, the tropical forests, which play a critical role in taking CO2 from the atmosphere, will die out. Global temperatures will rise by between five and six degrees in a short period of time, rendering most of the world uninhabitable for the vast majority of mankind.'

'“It is out of our hands. When the floating ice finally melts, it will be the equivalent of nearly all of the CO2 we have put in the atmosphere to date, so the earth begins to join in the act of global heating, doing it in a big way,” he says. “The earth is already moving to its hot stage. The hotter it gets, the faster it goes – and we can’t stop it.”'

'The problem, as Lovelock sees it, is that we have trashed the planet, destroying ecosystems and pumping harmful levels of CO2 into the air. The damage is already done.

'The temperature rises will be permanent, he predicts, and Gaia will adjust. Life will survive, but there is no guarantee that human beings will.'



'He pours scorn on the idea that climate change can be reversible.'

Quite rightly he points out that geoengineering - the concept that we can somehow fix climate change using technology, in essence manage both the planet and its climate - is an absolute conceit and utter folly.

'He pours scorn on the idea that climate change can be reversible.'

We only have to look objectively at our present predicament to see that.

'“I think humans just aren’t clever enough to handle the planet at the moment. We can’t even handle our financial affairs. The worst possible thing that could happen is the green dream of taking charge and saving the planet. I’d sooner a goat as a gardener than humans in charge of the earth,” he says.'

Odd, though, that he attributes that aspiration to the green lobby, as it seems misplaced. Perhaps a small portion of it. But most green solutions are based on living more ecologically and closer to the Earth.

The proponents of geoengineering are those still wedded to technology as the be all and end all (possibly quite literally) of life. In other words those who somehow remain able to believe that the industrial and economic system that has put us on the very brink is miraculously also to be our saviour.

Part of this is a naive and misplaced faith in the powers of science and technology to develop such a solution and on a scale totally unprecedented by orders of magnitude, and to do so perfectly, first time, without any prior testing. That is quite a belief.

But the main reason it is favoured is because it is the ideal recipe for the maintenance of that system as it is - massive investment in new technologies offering a bonanza for all concerned: stockbrokers and financiers; scientists, engineers, designers; manufacturers, materials suppliers; real estate; engineering and construction companies. So the perfect economic stimulus on a planetary scale, just when it is considered so desperately needed.

That is what swings the enthusiasm and support. The system marches on triumphant and unaltered. All predicated on the madness that economic well-being is paramount. Or at least on a par with having a future. Strange kind of thinking, really.

Here is where it has got us so far:

'QUITE THE MOST dire of his predictions is that the human race will be reduced in numbers to around one billion people by the end of this century. The biggest problem, he believes, is that there are just too many of us. Simply by existing, we and our lifestock [sic] account for a quarter of all man-made CO2 emissions.'

Yet like all good stories, this one still manages to surprise by reconciling things against all odds in a happy ending:

“I lived through the second World War and I thought it was exciting even though I was a pacifist. Life is going to be the opposite of boring. Young people will not regard the catastrophe in the same way as our generation will do.”

So there you go.

In closing, for James Lovelock's sake, we should note one error. The Gaia theory is not 'that the world is itself a living organism.' It is that the biosphere behaves in a manner analogous to a living organism in acting to sustain optimal conditions for the continuation of life on the planet. He is not well enamoured with that New Age interpretation.

Lovelock's scientific Gaia theory is by now thoroughly proven. The process it describes is what we have thoroughly derailed by our energy profligate ways of living.

What price a future?


For those wanting more, here is a review of both his latest book and his biography by John and Mary Gribbin which were published simultaneously in February.

Arctic Update 2: "a moment of terrible significance"

Having managed to beat the nationals in their on-line coverage of the National Snow and Ice Data Center winter Sea Ice report for the Arctic, here's the best of coverage they produced, together with a few more pertinent points.

Critical is this story from The Guardian under the headline


Thinning Arctic sea ice alarms experts. Volume of Arctic sea ice last summer may have been lowest


It is important for two reasons. First, it reports on the volume of ice, rather than the surface area, reflecting the issue of the age of the ice and its resistance to melting mentioned yesterday and here in a posting dealing with the end of Summer 2008 data. Volume is arguably the more definitive measure as large areas of new ice come and go each year. The Guardian reports

'a dramatic loss of the thicker "multi-year" ice in recent years, particularly after the summer of 2007, when the sea ice lost an area the size of Alaska in a single season.

'In 2008, the NSIDC reported that summer sea ice area recovered by 9% but was still the second lowest recorded. However, based on the latest data about the much greater area of thin first-year ice and losses of multi-year ice, especially that of five years or more, they believe that in volume terms last summer was the lowest since records began in the 1930s – and probably for at least 700 years and possibly up to 8,000 years, said Walt Meier, a research scientist at the Boulder-based centre. "Our estimate is that it was probably the lowest volume on record," Meier told the Guardian. "Certainly 2007 and 2008 [were] the two lowest [years for] volume and extent."'

The other reason this piece is worth a look is for the very graphic animation showing the loss of multi-year ice. No time line though to put it in context, so best to have a look at the graphic graphics at the end of the NSIDC report itself too.


Equally important is this momentous leading article from The Times. It heads up a sober and apocalyptic warning that we must act urgently under the headline


A Sudden Chill
An ice bridge in Antarctica has disappeared from the map. This is a defining moment that means the world must move much faster against climate change

'The collapse of an ice bridge yesterday, in the remote vastness of the Antarctic, was a moment of terrible significance. It matters much more than its size may immediately suggest. This 25-mile strip of ice is believed to underpin the enormous Wilkins ice shelf, one of ten Antarctic ice shelves that have been in place for 10,000 years, but which have shrunk or collapsed in the past half-century. There is no longer any reasonable doubt that climate change is the cause: temperatures have risen by 2.5C (4.5F) in the Antarctic Peninsula in 50 years, faster than the global average.'

As has been argued repeatedly here in the prognosticator it continues:

'What is most alarming about the events in the Antarctic is their speed, which has taken scientists by surprise.'

And for the apocalyptic warning - don't forget this is The Times - get this:

'The disappearance of parts of Antarctica from the map is a warning that the world should not ignore. The need for polar research and for concerted action against climate change has never been greater. In Bonn tomorrow, 175 countries conclude climate change talks that are intended to help to devise a new climate pact in the run-up to the crucial UN summit in Copenhagen at the end of this year. But the pace is glacial. President Obama warned on his sixth day in office that unchecked climate change could lead to “irreversible catastrophe”. Those were strong words. They need to be matched by dramatic action to move to a more carbon-neutral world. Events in Antarctica may seem remote: but they should send a chill through all of us.'

Meanwhile even The Daily Telegraph offered us

Arctic will be ice-free within a decade

'Records for the Arctic only go back as far as 1979, when it became possible to collect data from space, however scientists are confident that the current levels of ice are lower than they have been for at least a century from observational records.

'"It could be several hundred thousand years ago the last time we were ice free, it was certainly seven to eight hundred years since we have had close to conditions like we have now," '

'He said the melting of the Arctic is happening much faster than previously anticipated because of man made climate change.

'"Things are happening much faster than the climate models suggested so I think change is coming to the Arctic, particularly the Arctic Sea much more quickly than people had expected."'

And this telling quote at the end

'"It is important that people are aware and understand that the Arctic is the canary in the coal mine in terms of climate. I think it is a warning of what may be to come in other parts of the world," he said.'

Finally here's some pretty straight talking from WWF under the banner

Polar bears and penguins 'just tip of climate change iceberg'

“What is happening at the poles will control the world’s climate. If we do not stop the poles from melting, the whole world will feel it, in the form of runaway warming and rising waters.”

Right now the Catlin Arctic Survey expedition is sampling the thickness of Arctic sea ice. The expedition, partly sponsored by WWF, is likely to confirm scientists’ fears that the older, thicker ice is disappearing. This has led them to predict that the summer sea ice could disappear within a generation, leading to catastrophic consequences for the entire ecosystem, everything from single celled animals to whales.

“The Ministers meeting today in Washington have a special responsibility to the world,” said Mr Hamilton.

Meanwhile all eyes must now be on the Larsen C Ice Shelf. If that goes, the sea level rises really will be apocalyptic.

Take your pick from further coverage here. Or google it up - stories are coming in continuously

Associated Press Arctic sea ice thinnest ever going into spring

San Fransisco Chronicle Arctic ice getting thinner, fading fast

ABC Ice bridge collapse sparks fresh climate change concerns

CCTV (Xinhua News Agency) U.S. calls for more protection for poles (with a nice picture of an iceberg)

Polar Update - disquieting events

Just throwing together a very quick update here because various disquieting events are currently happening at both Poles.

All bolding is mine.


ANTARCTIC

Perhaps most concerning is the news released on Sunday morning that the ice bridge holding the Wilkins Ice Shelf in place has broken. Here is the BBC report and one just released by the British Antarctic Survey. the BBC said

'An ice bridge linking a shelf of ice the size of Jamaica to two islands in Antarctica has snapped.

'Scientists say the collapse could mean the Wilkins Ice Shelf is on the brink of breaking away, and provides further evidence of rapid change in the region.'

The day before, a joint report of the US Geological Survey and the British Antarctic Survey was released stating that the Wordie Ice Shelf has completely 'disappeared' in the words of the Reuters headline. The news agency stated

'One Antarctic ice shelf has quickly vanished, another is disappearing and glaciers are melting faster than anyone thought due to climate change, U.S. and British government researchers reported on Friday.

'They said the Wordie Ice Shelf, which had been disintegrating since the 1960s, is gone and the northern part of the Larsen Ice Shelf no longer exists. More than 3,200 square miles (8,300 square km) have broken off from the Larsen shelf since 1986.

'Climate change is to blame, according to the report from the U.S. Geological Survey and the British Antarctic Survey, available at pubs.usgs.gov/imap/2600/B.'

Today, the Australian periodical The Age reports that

'UP TO one-third of all Antarctic sea ice is likely to melt by the end of the century, seriously contributing to dangerous sea level rises, updated scientific modelling on global warming shows.

'The evidence will be presented to an international meeting of Antarctic and Arctic scientists in the US tonight, at which US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton will speak.

'The modelling is the first release of a landmark study being conducted by the global scientific body the Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research, made up of the peak scientific bodies from 23 countries including Australia.

'The report, Antarctic Climate Change and the Environment, is the result of research undertaken by all 23 nations, the first time such a study has been undertaken. The final report will be released in June.'

'The report shows that the Antarctic Peninsula alone has decreased by 27,000 square kilometres in the past 50 years.'

ARCTIC

The Arctic winter has come to an end and the melting season has commenced. Within the hour, the National Snow & Ice Data Center has just released its first full update since. A preliminary update (available in the archives at the same link) posted on 30 March stated:

'On February 28, Arctic sea ice reached its maximum extent for the year, at 15.14 million square kilometers (5.85 million square miles). The maximum extent was 720,000 square kilometers (278,000 square miles) below the 1979 to 2000 average of 15.86 million square kilometers (6.12 million square miles), making it the fifth-lowest maximum extent in the satellite record. The six lowest maximum extents since 1979 have all occurred in the last six years (2004 to 2009).'

The key issue is the age of the ice as this governs its thickness, and so how quickly it will melt away on warming. Here we have disquieting news from the latest release:

'As the melt season begins, the Arctic Ocean is covered mostly by first-year ice, which formed this winter, and second-year ice, which formed during the winter of 2007 to 2008. First-year ice in particular is thinner and more prone to melting away than thicker, older, multi-year ice. This year, ice older than two years accounted for less than 10% of the ice cover at the end of February. From 1981 through 2000, such older ice made up an average of 30% of the total sea ice cover at this time of the year.'

If it turns out to be a warm summer, we shall therefore see a very rapid retreat as a result.


Finally here is perhaps the most telling quote, from a story entitled Arctic meltdown is a threat to humanity from Global Research dated 31 March

'I AM shocked, truly shocked," says Katey Walter, an ecologist at the University of Alaska in Fairbanks. "I was in Siberia a few weeks ago, and I am now just back in from the field in Alaska. The permafrost is melting fast all over the Arctic, lakes are forming everywhere and methane is bubbling up out of them."

'Back in 2006, in a paper in Nature, Walter warned that as the permafrost in Siberia melted, growing methane emissions could accelerate climate change. But even she was not expecting such a rapid change. "Lakes in Siberia are five times bigger than when I measured them in 2006. It's unprecedented. This is a global event now, and the inertia for more permafrost melt is increasing."'

Update: Pig Business and Libel Laws

A big apology to those who tuned in to watch Pig Business on Tuesday night and found themselves watching True Stories - Who Killed the Electric Car? instead.

Little was it anticipated that what was intended as a quick announcement of this film would lead us deep into the sacred turf of freedom of speech - internationally - and to Britain's parlous libel laws.

What happened was that Channel 4 revised the schedules at short notice, announcing that a new broadcast date would be found for Pig Business. This was apparently done in order to assure the press that pulling the programme was merely postponing it, rather than abandoning it altogether. However the new slot is likely to be sometime in May, presumably to allow time for the perceived issues to be fully worked through.

Channel 4, like all UK media outlets attempting to report public interest information, has to do boot and braces when making sure all its legal boxes are ticked. This can be onerous, as UK libel laws might be considered to be corporate friendly - if not a major impediment to free speech. So much so that 'libel tourism' is now a serious problem, where foreign plaintiffs come to the UK to sue, even over material that was not published in the UK.

This is not a problem merely for Britain. It is considered to be a such a threat to the American First Amendment - freedom of speech and the press - that draft legislation to counter it is currently being laid before Congress with support on all sides. Here's the First Amendment in full:

Congress shall make no law respecting an establishment of religion, or prohibiting the free exercise thereof; or abridging the freedom of speech, or of the press; or the right of the people peaceably to assemble, and to petition the Government for a redress of grievances.

For an example of what is happening at its worst, here is a recent story from The Washington Post titled The Attack of the Libel Tourists which tells us:

'Plaintiffs with little or no connection to the country [UK] are filing libel suits there; British judges more often than not allow them to proceed on flimsy jurisdictional grounds'

while The Guardian reports the issue from the other side of the pond:

'American legislators told Congress that cases heard in London were causing "concrete and profound harm" to the American people.

'The Guardian has learned both the Ministry of Justice and the parliamentary committee on media, culture and sport are planning consultations on libel law reforms, as the US takes steps to protect Americans from the English courts.

'Earlier this month, an American congressional committee singled out "ridiculous lawsuits" permitted in London and heard that "foreign individuals are operating a scheme to intimidate authors and publishers".'

Putting the issue into context:

'The controversy surrounding English libel law is the requirement that authors of defamatory statements must prove the statement is true.

'By contrast, in the US, statements are presumed to be true unless the person bringing the claim can show it was false, there was "actual malice" or that the falsehood was intentional.'

So much for the cherished British notion of free expression, then.


Astonishingly - as she was not on the distribution for the postings and we had never been in contact - in the midst of all this Tracy Worcester somehow managed to get a message through in good time to alert us of the rescheduling in advance. Alas, her email arrived after the library had shut, just too late to pass it on to you in good time.

So whilst the rescheduling may therefore have come as a surprise, three potentially good things emerge from this:

it seems safe to assume that when a programme has to be re-edited under these circumstances we can be sure it has something very important to say

as more notice of the showing should now be possible, more folk will get a chance to learn what it is

while apparently True Stories - Who Killed the Electric Car? turned out to be an important documentary in its own right, described by one recipient as 'essential viewing'.

So a happy ending, at least for those who persevered. Here's what the Channel 4 website had to say about it:

'The curious story of the short life of one of the fastest, most efficient production cars ever built.

'It ran on electricity, produced no emissions and catapulted American technology to the forefront of the automotive industry. The lucky few who drove it never wanted to give it up. So why did General Motors crush its fleet of EV1 electric vehicles into landfill sites in the obscurity of the Arizona desert?

'Chris Paine's documentary investigates the events that led to the quiet destruction of an apparently promising product.

'Through interviews, ranging from enthusiastic owner Mel Gibson to ex-CIA boss R James Woolsey, the film paints a picture of an industrial culture whose aversion to change and reliance on oil may run deeper then its ability to embrace new, radical solutions.'

Stand by for news of the revised showing of Pig Business which will be circulated just as soon as the information reaches the pensive prognosticator.

Meanwhile for those who can't wait, here's the trailer. Plus there is plenty more graphic stuff on the Pig Business website.

Pig Business - More 4 tonight 2200

The flurry of important environmental events at short notice continues apace.

The latest is Pig Business, a film by Tracy Worcester, which is being shown tonight on More 4 at 2200.

Tracy did a brilliant job chairing the launch of the groundbreaking and quite possibly historic Wild Law research paper last Tuesday, by all accounts. More on that later.

While if all of us had her commitment to building a better world, just imagine how much better things would be. Here's what she does according to Wikipedia - amongst other things.

In 1989, Tracy Worcester began working with Friends of the Earth. Since then, she has been active in green politics as Patron of the International Society for Ecology and Culture, a Trustee of the Gaia Foundation, the Schumacher Society and the Bath Environment Centre, Patron of the UK's Soil Association, and as a member of the advisory board of The Ecologist magazine and a member of the International Forum on Globalisation.

And still has time for making movies!

Pig Business exposes the unconscionable costs of bringing home the bacon on four fronts:

- animal rights

- destroying small farmers - at an astonishing rate as the market is globalised by multi-national farming conglomerates

- polluting the environment - in a big way...

- jeopardising our lives


For example on the environment (my bolding throughout, other than titles)

'One-third of the world’s total cultivable land is dedicated to growing cereal and soya to feed livestock, while a further 7% is used for grazing animals. Eighty per cent of the world's soya beans and 60% of its maize and barley are grown for livestock feed.

'Much of this land is acquired by destroying forests, a major cause of CO2 emissions and loss of biodiversity. Between 2004 and 2005 around 1.2 million hectares of rainforest were cut down as a result of soya expansion, almost entirely for animal feed and livestock pastures.

'How livestock production contributes to 18% of global greenhouse gas emissions

Source: McMichael et al. (2007) Food, livestock production, energy, climate change, and health. The Lancet, 370(9594), 1253-1263

'In Latin America the land devoted to soya crops doubled between 1994 and 2004, and deforestation, particularly of the Amazon rainforest, now accounts for around 75% of Brazil’s greenhouse gas emissions. Soya cultivation in Brazil to date occupies an area of land the size of Great Britain.'

On the threat to our lives:

'Because of the crowded and unnatural conditions in which factory farmed animals live, they are frequently given antibiotics to prevent disease or bolster their weakened immune systems. Across the world half of all the antibiotics used are administered to livestock. Around 80-90% of all antibiotics used for humans and animals are not fully digested or broken down, leaving them to pass through the body and enter the environment intact through waste.

'Evidence suggests that this over-use of antibiotics is helping to spread drug-resistant strains of diseases such as MRSA and E. coli, which can cause humans serious illness and death. The transfer of MRSA from pigs to humans is already recognised in the Netherlands, and it is feared this new strain of MRSA affecting pigs in some countries will spread to the UK, exacerbating the existing problem.

'Workers at risk
'... at least a quarter of factory farm workers consistently suffer from respiratory diseases, including bronchitis, mucous membrane irritation, asthma-like syndrome, and acute respiratory distress syndrome.

'A deadly environment
'Studies repeatedly show that air and water quality are threatened in and around factory farms. Noxious gases in the atmosphere from manure containing hydrogen sulphide, ammonia, and dangerous pathogens cause ill health not only to those working with the animals but those living nearby. Many local residents report unusually frequent headaches, eye irritation, excessive coughing, nausea and asthma. Hydrogen sulphide may cause nausea, blackout periods, headaches and vomiting, and breathing in too much ammonia can cause severe respiratory damage.

'Excessive spraying of faecal material onto fields results in run-off into nearby lakes and rivers, poisoning the water table, eco system and drinking water. The North Carolina Department of Environment and Natural Resources has discovered that 1 in 10 drinking-water wells near factory pig farms contains unsafe levels of nitrates, which has been linked to risk of blue-baby syndrome. Six-month-old infants, pregnant women and adults with immunity deficiencies are especially vulnerable.

'President George W. Bush, in one of his last acts before he leaves office, has proposed to free industrial-scale pig and cattle farms from the Clean Water Act if they declare they are not dumping animal waste in lakes and rivers.

'Exploiting the poor
'In the US, intensive pig farms are clustered typically in non-white areas near low-income communities where people are extra vulnerable to the hazards of factory farms because of existing problems of poor health, poor housing, low income, and lack of access to medical care.

After all that, one may ask why not go the whole hog, keep the poor old hog whole, and just go vegan? George Monbiot came to that conclusion, at least intellectually, in this article last April:

Credit crunch? The real crisis is global hunger. And if you care, eat less meat A food recession is under way. Biofuels are a crime against humanity, but - take it from a flesh eater - flesh eating is worse

While there are some telling environmental arguments put forward by the Vegan Society here and in the side links dealing with land, water and energy.

Perhaps most telling, particularly for those inclined to blame climate change on the growing human population is this:

'World meat production has quadrupled in the past 50 years and livestock now outnumber people by more than 3 to 1. [2] In other words, the livestock population is expanding at a faster rate than the human population.'

And consuming a substantial proportion of the available resources, particularly land, food and water.

More than enough said.

Put People First! Tomorrow - London

Hard to find a more worthy cause than this. To confirm that, just take a scroll through the organisations supporting it listed on the Put People First website.

Short notice undoubtedly - its tomorrow in London. But if you can possibly get there, think profoundly about dropping everything and going - regardless.

If not, lend your voice in cyberspace by filling in the message box now. It need only take a few moments.

Nothing could be more important in the run up to the G20 summit than a massive demonstration that fundamental values have got to change - right now. That we are no longer prepared to sleepwalk into annihilation following leaders irretrievably stuck in the old paradigm - the one which has got us into this enormous hole in the first place, environmentally, socially and financially.

Could turn out be the best thing you've ever done. It has the promise to be the catalyst of changes that will improve life on the planet for billions of people and our fellow travellers here - to save lives even. Maybe yours!

The thing which will make the difference is massive numbers of bodies on the street, standing up peaceably and positively for a better world for us all.

Only one way to make that happen - be there!


PS Apologies for the short call - the request to circulate this was only received a couple of hours ago.

Film Premier Crude 23 March

Along with the leaves and blossoms, it seems that spring is a profusion of premieres for some reason.

Monday 23 March sees the UK Premiere of CRUDE at the Human Rights Watch International Film Festival at the ICA in London.

'Filmmaker Joe Berlinger’s latest documentary focuses on the infamous “Amazon Chernobyl” case, a 13 year battle between indigenous communities in Ecuador nearly destroyed by oil drilling and Chevron, one of the world’s largest oil companies. In a sophisticated take on the classic David and Goliath story, Berlinger crafts a portrait of the incredible team in the US and Ecuador who have pursued this case against all odds. He is at pains, too, to show the case from all sides: the scientists and lawyers employed by Chevron, Ecuadoran judges, activists and humanitarian organizers, and the dramatic intervention of Ecuador’s president Rafael Correa. CRUDE looks beyond compassion for the disenfranchised and the corruption of power to ask how justice itself is being defined in the 21st century. *Official selection, Sundance Film Festival 2009'

The film stars Trudie Styler, married to Sting who

'...stunned fans at the Sundance Film Festival in Utah at the weekend
(18Jan09) when he showed up unannounced to support a pal's rainforest preservation documentary.The rocker and longtime rainforest activist stepped up to the stage at a Gibson Guitars-sponsored suite to perform hits with a house band.But he was keen to point out that he never intended to play at Sundance - the bearded star was there to back Joe Berlinger's movie Crude, which chronicles the plight of Ecuador residents who are battling the bosses of oil giant Chevron for allegedly contaminating water supplies around the headwaters of the Amazon River.Sting's wife Trudie Styler stars in the film, and the rock singer is
featured.

Obviously this will help everyone to understand what they are contributing to when they cruise the planet in their chosen form of haste, gas up the tank or whatever, so well worth seeing.

For those who like films called 'crude' about peak oil and the woes of the oil industry, googling this also turned up these offerings:

A Crude Awakening
http://www.oilcrashmovie.com/index2.html

Crude Impact (here reviewed and recommended by Transition Towns)
http://transitionculture.org/2006/12/12/review-new-peak-oil-film-crude-impact/


And The Age of Stupid was also going under the name Crude when previewed last year.

Popular kind of choice, then.


Be happy


PS Here are the URLs for plain text readers.


http://www.crudethemovie.com/

http://www.contactmusic.com/news.nsf/article/sting%20supports%20crude%20film%20with%20sundance%20show_1092250