Another moment of terrible significance

If the breaking of the ice bridge on the Wilkins Ice Shelf at the start of April was, as a Times leader so rightly reported, a moment of terrible significance, (covered here and here) then what is now happening has to be all the more so.

The Wilkins Ice Shelf has since destabilised and is starting to calve - in other words its seaward edge is starting to break up on a massive scale.

This was reported a few days ago the European Space Agency - though there seems to be no report to be found on its rather rudimentary website - and covered 3 days ago by the news agency UPI. However the mainstream media has in the main been slow to pick up this key development.

From what has trickled in subsequently we learn that 'about 700 sq km of ice - bigger than Singapore or Bahrain and almost the size of New York - has broken off the Wilkins this month and shattered into a mass of icebergs.'

Scientists estimate that 'over the next several weeks the Wilkins shelf will lose some 1,300 square miles (3,370 square kilometers), an area larger than the state of Rhode Island, or two-thirds the size of Luxembourg.'

While more forebodingly: 'even more ice could break off "if the connection to Latady Island is lost" though it is as yet unclear that will happen.'

The best impression can be had by viewing the image slideshow on the ESA website on which Latady Island is clearly visible, while making allowance for the fact that the accompanying text is hopelessly retrospective.

While here is a sample of the press coverage.

The Independent reports

'Humbert told Reuters about 700 sq km of ice - bigger than Singapore or Bahrain and almost the size of New York - has broken off the Wilkins this month and shattered into a mass of icebergs.
'She said 370 sq kms of ice had cracked up in recent days.'


The Guardian story went out 9 hours ago, which tells us

'"The retreat of Wilkins Ice Shelf is the latest and the largest of its kind"'.

'The Wilkins shelf, which is the size of Jamaica, lost 14 percent of its mass last year'

'Average temperatures in the Antarctic Peninsula have risen by 3.8 degrees Fahrenheit (2.5 Celsius) over the past 50 years — [sic] higher than the average global rise, according to studies.
'Over the next several weeks, scientists estimate the Wilkins shelf will lose some 1,300 square miles (3,370 square kilometers) — [sic] a piece larger than the state of Rhode Island, or two-thirds the size of Luxembourg.

'"We are not sure if a new stable ice front will now form between Latady Island, Petrie Ice Rises and Dorsey Island," said Angelika Humbert of Germany's Muenster University Institute of Geophysics.
'But even more ice could break off "if the connection to Latady Island is lost," she said, "though we have no indication that this will happen in the near future."'


The Telegraph adds

'David Vaughan of the British Antarctic Survey said: "The retreat of Wilkins Ice Shelf is the latest and largest of its kind.
'"Eight separate ice shelves along the Antarctic Peninsula have shown signs of retreat over the last few decades.
'"There is little doubt that these changes are the result of atmospheric warming on the Antarctic Peninsula, which has been the most rapid in the Southern Hemisphere."'

We should be watching with absolute attention as this drama unfolds, with the key question being how the glacier behind disintegrating ice shelf will respond.

Yet also for the historic drama. Not often in humanity's history have we been presented with the chance to bid farewell to an Earth feature as old as the hills - literally - and forever.

Should ever it reappear it will not be in be in the foreseeable future. Nor prior to the next ice age. So make sure your kids get the chance to witness this for themselves.

Apocalyse shortly! - Lovelock

Last October the prognosticator carried Apocalypse shortly? We should know next by next summer.

It was prompted by the disquieting discovery in the dying days of the last Arctic summer of the unprecedented release of methane in large quantity from the Arctic sea floor, and attempted to distill the grave implications resulting.

James Lovelock's latest thoughts on the matter are simpler. They come from an interview carried in the Irish Times of 16 April under the title The genial prophet of climate doom.

Why? Because for Lovelock, it is not a question of if. It is now a certainty.

Along with most climate scientists and specialists in the region, in the case of the Arctic ice the debate is no longer of whether it will endure, merely one of when. From there the process is inevitable:

'Within 30 years, he believes, the Arctic’s floating summer sea ice will all be melted. The polar caps will no longer reflect sunlight back into space and, instead, the ocean will absorb sunlight, heating up. The permafrosts in northern Canada and Siberia will thaw out, releasing carbon dioxide (CO2). At the same time, the tropical forests, which play a critical role in taking CO2 from the atmosphere, will die out. Global temperatures will rise by between five and six degrees in a short period of time, rendering most of the world uninhabitable for the vast majority of mankind.'

'“It is out of our hands. When the floating ice finally melts, it will be the equivalent of nearly all of the CO2 we have put in the atmosphere to date, so the earth begins to join in the act of global heating, doing it in a big way,” he says. “The earth is already moving to its hot stage. The hotter it gets, the faster it goes – and we can’t stop it.”'

'The problem, as Lovelock sees it, is that we have trashed the planet, destroying ecosystems and pumping harmful levels of CO2 into the air. The damage is already done.

'The temperature rises will be permanent, he predicts, and Gaia will adjust. Life will survive, but there is no guarantee that human beings will.'



'He pours scorn on the idea that climate change can be reversible.'

Quite rightly he points out that geoengineering - the concept that we can somehow fix climate change using technology, in essence manage both the planet and its climate - is an absolute conceit and utter folly.

'He pours scorn on the idea that climate change can be reversible.'

We only have to look objectively at our present predicament to see that.

'“I think humans just aren’t clever enough to handle the planet at the moment. We can’t even handle our financial affairs. The worst possible thing that could happen is the green dream of taking charge and saving the planet. I’d sooner a goat as a gardener than humans in charge of the earth,” he says.'

Odd, though, that he attributes that aspiration to the green lobby, as it seems misplaced. Perhaps a small portion of it. But most green solutions are based on living more ecologically and closer to the Earth.

The proponents of geoengineering are those still wedded to technology as the be all and end all (possibly quite literally) of life. In other words those who somehow remain able to believe that the industrial and economic system that has put us on the very brink is miraculously also to be our saviour.

Part of this is a naive and misplaced faith in the powers of science and technology to develop such a solution and on a scale totally unprecedented by orders of magnitude, and to do so perfectly, first time, without any prior testing. That is quite a belief.

But the main reason it is favoured is because it is the ideal recipe for the maintenance of that system as it is - massive investment in new technologies offering a bonanza for all concerned: stockbrokers and financiers; scientists, engineers, designers; manufacturers, materials suppliers; real estate; engineering and construction companies. So the perfect economic stimulus on a planetary scale, just when it is considered so desperately needed.

That is what swings the enthusiasm and support. The system marches on triumphant and unaltered. All predicated on the madness that economic well-being is paramount. Or at least on a par with having a future. Strange kind of thinking, really.

Here is where it has got us so far:

'QUITE THE MOST dire of his predictions is that the human race will be reduced in numbers to around one billion people by the end of this century. The biggest problem, he believes, is that there are just too many of us. Simply by existing, we and our lifestock [sic] account for a quarter of all man-made CO2 emissions.'

Yet like all good stories, this one still manages to surprise by reconciling things against all odds in a happy ending:

“I lived through the second World War and I thought it was exciting even though I was a pacifist. Life is going to be the opposite of boring. Young people will not regard the catastrophe in the same way as our generation will do.”

So there you go.

In closing, for James Lovelock's sake, we should note one error. The Gaia theory is not 'that the world is itself a living organism.' It is that the biosphere behaves in a manner analogous to a living organism in acting to sustain optimal conditions for the continuation of life on the planet. He is not well enamoured with that New Age interpretation.

Lovelock's scientific Gaia theory is by now thoroughly proven. The process it describes is what we have thoroughly derailed by our energy profligate ways of living.

What price a future?


For those wanting more, here is a review of both his latest book and his biography by John and Mary Gribbin which were published simultaneously in February.

Arctic Update 2: "a moment of terrible significance"

Having managed to beat the nationals in their on-line coverage of the National Snow and Ice Data Center winter Sea Ice report for the Arctic, here's the best of coverage they produced, together with a few more pertinent points.

Critical is this story from The Guardian under the headline


Thinning Arctic sea ice alarms experts. Volume of Arctic sea ice last summer may have been lowest


It is important for two reasons. First, it reports on the volume of ice, rather than the surface area, reflecting the issue of the age of the ice and its resistance to melting mentioned yesterday and here in a posting dealing with the end of Summer 2008 data. Volume is arguably the more definitive measure as large areas of new ice come and go each year. The Guardian reports

'a dramatic loss of the thicker "multi-year" ice in recent years, particularly after the summer of 2007, when the sea ice lost an area the size of Alaska in a single season.

'In 2008, the NSIDC reported that summer sea ice area recovered by 9% but was still the second lowest recorded. However, based on the latest data about the much greater area of thin first-year ice and losses of multi-year ice, especially that of five years or more, they believe that in volume terms last summer was the lowest since records began in the 1930s – and probably for at least 700 years and possibly up to 8,000 years, said Walt Meier, a research scientist at the Boulder-based centre. "Our estimate is that it was probably the lowest volume on record," Meier told the Guardian. "Certainly 2007 and 2008 [were] the two lowest [years for] volume and extent."'

The other reason this piece is worth a look is for the very graphic animation showing the loss of multi-year ice. No time line though to put it in context, so best to have a look at the graphic graphics at the end of the NSIDC report itself too.


Equally important is this momentous leading article from The Times. It heads up a sober and apocalyptic warning that we must act urgently under the headline


A Sudden Chill
An ice bridge in Antarctica has disappeared from the map. This is a defining moment that means the world must move much faster against climate change

'The collapse of an ice bridge yesterday, in the remote vastness of the Antarctic, was a moment of terrible significance. It matters much more than its size may immediately suggest. This 25-mile strip of ice is believed to underpin the enormous Wilkins ice shelf, one of ten Antarctic ice shelves that have been in place for 10,000 years, but which have shrunk or collapsed in the past half-century. There is no longer any reasonable doubt that climate change is the cause: temperatures have risen by 2.5C (4.5F) in the Antarctic Peninsula in 50 years, faster than the global average.'

As has been argued repeatedly here in the prognosticator it continues:

'What is most alarming about the events in the Antarctic is their speed, which has taken scientists by surprise.'

And for the apocalyptic warning - don't forget this is The Times - get this:

'The disappearance of parts of Antarctica from the map is a warning that the world should not ignore. The need for polar research and for concerted action against climate change has never been greater. In Bonn tomorrow, 175 countries conclude climate change talks that are intended to help to devise a new climate pact in the run-up to the crucial UN summit in Copenhagen at the end of this year. But the pace is glacial. President Obama warned on his sixth day in office that unchecked climate change could lead to “irreversible catastrophe”. Those were strong words. They need to be matched by dramatic action to move to a more carbon-neutral world. Events in Antarctica may seem remote: but they should send a chill through all of us.'

Meanwhile even The Daily Telegraph offered us

Arctic will be ice-free within a decade

'Records for the Arctic only go back as far as 1979, when it became possible to collect data from space, however scientists are confident that the current levels of ice are lower than they have been for at least a century from observational records.

'"It could be several hundred thousand years ago the last time we were ice free, it was certainly seven to eight hundred years since we have had close to conditions like we have now," '

'He said the melting of the Arctic is happening much faster than previously anticipated because of man made climate change.

'"Things are happening much faster than the climate models suggested so I think change is coming to the Arctic, particularly the Arctic Sea much more quickly than people had expected."'

And this telling quote at the end

'"It is important that people are aware and understand that the Arctic is the canary in the coal mine in terms of climate. I think it is a warning of what may be to come in other parts of the world," he said.'

Finally here's some pretty straight talking from WWF under the banner

Polar bears and penguins 'just tip of climate change iceberg'

“What is happening at the poles will control the world’s climate. If we do not stop the poles from melting, the whole world will feel it, in the form of runaway warming and rising waters.”

Right now the Catlin Arctic Survey expedition is sampling the thickness of Arctic sea ice. The expedition, partly sponsored by WWF, is likely to confirm scientists’ fears that the older, thicker ice is disappearing. This has led them to predict that the summer sea ice could disappear within a generation, leading to catastrophic consequences for the entire ecosystem, everything from single celled animals to whales.

“The Ministers meeting today in Washington have a special responsibility to the world,” said Mr Hamilton.

Meanwhile all eyes must now be on the Larsen C Ice Shelf. If that goes, the sea level rises really will be apocalyptic.

Take your pick from further coverage here. Or google it up - stories are coming in continuously

Associated Press Arctic sea ice thinnest ever going into spring

San Fransisco Chronicle Arctic ice getting thinner, fading fast

ABC Ice bridge collapse sparks fresh climate change concerns

CCTV (Xinhua News Agency) U.S. calls for more protection for poles (with a nice picture of an iceberg)

Polar Update - disquieting events

Just throwing together a very quick update here because various disquieting events are currently happening at both Poles.

All bolding is mine.


ANTARCTIC

Perhaps most concerning is the news released on Sunday morning that the ice bridge holding the Wilkins Ice Shelf in place has broken. Here is the BBC report and one just released by the British Antarctic Survey. the BBC said

'An ice bridge linking a shelf of ice the size of Jamaica to two islands in Antarctica has snapped.

'Scientists say the collapse could mean the Wilkins Ice Shelf is on the brink of breaking away, and provides further evidence of rapid change in the region.'

The day before, a joint report of the US Geological Survey and the British Antarctic Survey was released stating that the Wordie Ice Shelf has completely 'disappeared' in the words of the Reuters headline. The news agency stated

'One Antarctic ice shelf has quickly vanished, another is disappearing and glaciers are melting faster than anyone thought due to climate change, U.S. and British government researchers reported on Friday.

'They said the Wordie Ice Shelf, which had been disintegrating since the 1960s, is gone and the northern part of the Larsen Ice Shelf no longer exists. More than 3,200 square miles (8,300 square km) have broken off from the Larsen shelf since 1986.

'Climate change is to blame, according to the report from the U.S. Geological Survey and the British Antarctic Survey, available at pubs.usgs.gov/imap/2600/B.'

Today, the Australian periodical The Age reports that

'UP TO one-third of all Antarctic sea ice is likely to melt by the end of the century, seriously contributing to dangerous sea level rises, updated scientific modelling on global warming shows.

'The evidence will be presented to an international meeting of Antarctic and Arctic scientists in the US tonight, at which US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton will speak.

'The modelling is the first release of a landmark study being conducted by the global scientific body the Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research, made up of the peak scientific bodies from 23 countries including Australia.

'The report, Antarctic Climate Change and the Environment, is the result of research undertaken by all 23 nations, the first time such a study has been undertaken. The final report will be released in June.'

'The report shows that the Antarctic Peninsula alone has decreased by 27,000 square kilometres in the past 50 years.'

ARCTIC

The Arctic winter has come to an end and the melting season has commenced. Within the hour, the National Snow & Ice Data Center has just released its first full update since. A preliminary update (available in the archives at the same link) posted on 30 March stated:

'On February 28, Arctic sea ice reached its maximum extent for the year, at 15.14 million square kilometers (5.85 million square miles). The maximum extent was 720,000 square kilometers (278,000 square miles) below the 1979 to 2000 average of 15.86 million square kilometers (6.12 million square miles), making it the fifth-lowest maximum extent in the satellite record. The six lowest maximum extents since 1979 have all occurred in the last six years (2004 to 2009).'

The key issue is the age of the ice as this governs its thickness, and so how quickly it will melt away on warming. Here we have disquieting news from the latest release:

'As the melt season begins, the Arctic Ocean is covered mostly by first-year ice, which formed this winter, and second-year ice, which formed during the winter of 2007 to 2008. First-year ice in particular is thinner and more prone to melting away than thicker, older, multi-year ice. This year, ice older than two years accounted for less than 10% of the ice cover at the end of February. From 1981 through 2000, such older ice made up an average of 30% of the total sea ice cover at this time of the year.'

If it turns out to be a warm summer, we shall therefore see a very rapid retreat as a result.


Finally here is perhaps the most telling quote, from a story entitled Arctic meltdown is a threat to humanity from Global Research dated 31 March

'I AM shocked, truly shocked," says Katey Walter, an ecologist at the University of Alaska in Fairbanks. "I was in Siberia a few weeks ago, and I am now just back in from the field in Alaska. The permafrost is melting fast all over the Arctic, lakes are forming everywhere and methane is bubbling up out of them."

'Back in 2006, in a paper in Nature, Walter warned that as the permafrost in Siberia melted, growing methane emissions could accelerate climate change. But even she was not expecting such a rapid change. "Lakes in Siberia are five times bigger than when I measured them in 2006. It's unprecedented. This is a global event now, and the inertia for more permafrost melt is increasing."'